April is a major revenue month for the state. This post includes two graphs that track the state’s progress in meeting the administration’s January 2018 projection for April personal income tax receipts. At the end of the post, we provide an update on corporation tax collections to date.
The administration estimates that the state will collect $13.9 billion in personal income tax (PIT) revenue in April 2018 (net of Proposition 63 transfers to the Mental Health Fund). Of this total, the administration estimates that $12.7 billion will come from final and extension payments relating to tax year 2017 and estimated payments relating to tax year 2018. The chart below tracks daily collections of these “FTB payments.”
The green line represents an estimate of daily collections necessary to meet the administration’s $12.7 billion projection for the month. The purple line shows actual collections through the most recent day for which we have data. As the chart shows, collections so far are on track to meet or exceed what is needed to reach the projection.
In addition to the $12.7 billion in FTB payments, the administration estimates the state will collect $5.1 billion in withholding and will refund $3.6 billion. The chart below shows the cumulative total of all PIT revenues through the most recent date for which we have comprehensive data on all of these sources. As above, PIT receipts currently are on track to meet or exceed the administration’s monthly projection.
The administration estimates that the state will collect $2.3 billion in corporation tax (CT) revenue in April 2018. Last week, we noted that the administration did not account for certain changes in the filing deadlines for CT payments owed by pass-through businesses, such as partnerships and LLCs, and this resulted in higher than projected CT revenues in March. Consequently, CT revenue could fall below the administration’s projections in April. However, based on the most recent April CT receipts—currently totaling $2.2 billion—revenues are on track to meet or exceed the administration’s monthly projection.