This post compares the administration's multi-year forecast revenue estimates with those generated under the LAO May 2016 economic growth scenario through 2019-20. (This does not reflect required transfers to the Budget Stabilization Account under Proposition 2 under the LAO figures, as those estimates are still under development.)
We discuss the ways that economic assumptions affect state budget analyses and how policy makers and others should consider these assumptions.
We have now received preliminary data from all the tax agencies concerning April 2016 collections of the personal income tax, the sales and use tax, and the corporation tax. These are the state General Fund's "Big Three" revenue sources.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has released updated data for states' "U-6" measures (broad measures of the unemployed, underemployed, and those who are not looking but who want a job) through the first quarter of 2016.
We discuss the March 2016 jobs report, released by the California Employment Development Department and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
We have received preliminary information from the state's tax agencies on February 2016 collections of the California's "Big Three" state General Fund taxes.
In the mid-1990s, the state allowed Santa Cruz County enterprise districts' property tax revenue to be redirected to a supplemental fund supporting county libraries.
We were asked to provide an overview of state homelessness programs at a hearing of the Senate Committee on Budget and Fiscal Review.
As part of the annual budget development process, the administration provides us with its current estimates of Proposition 30 revenues through 2018-19. 2018-19 is the last fiscal year affected by the Proposition 30 income tax increases for high-income Californians.
We explore how the property tax allocation decisions from the mid-1970s affect funding for local airport services even now in the Lake Tahoe region.
We discuss a particular formula used in the state budget related to personal income growth. The administration's January estimate of this formula for the 2016-17 state budget is likely too low.