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Pavement Maintenance: Protecting the State’s Investment

February 18, 2004 - Pavement maintenance protects the taxpayers’ investment in the highway system and can reduce long-term costs by postponing the need for more expensive roadway rehabilitation. Poorly maintained roadways increase costs to motorists for vehicle repair, costing drivers in Los Angeles or San Jose an average of more than $700 a year for instance. There is now a backlog of $587 million in pavement maintenance work. We recommend Caltrans refocus its maintenance efforts by developing an investment plan for highway maintenance. We also recommend Caltrans develop performance measures that link the state’s investment to the resulting quality of the highway system.

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Additional Options for Addressing the State’s Fiscal Problem

February 18, 2004 - In this piece, we present options for the Legislature's consideration. We have identified expenditures that may be considered of lower priority in tough budget times. It is not that these activities are without merit or not desirable. In better fiscal times we would not necessarily put such options on the table. However, we offer them in the context of a need to solve a massive budget shortfall. We have also identified selected revenue options for the Legislature's consideration. These options generally involve tax expenditure programs which are either inefficient at achieving their objectives or are not the most efficient means of doing so.

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The Problem of Abusive Tax Shelters

February 18, 2004 - The current level of abusive tax shelters (ATS) activity—and its potential for future expansion—raises significant administrative challenges for FTB and for the continued viability of the state's revenue system. The use of ATSs not only results in significant immediate term revenue losses to California—in the hundreds of millions of dollars annually—but can also result in declining compliance by an increasing number of taxpayers over the longer term. While the Legislature has taken important steps to curtail the use of ATSs, it may want to consider additional measures in this regard. This discussion provides an overview of the ATS phenomenon, addresses the impacts of such shelters on the state, and suggests measures the Legislature may want to consider to address the ATS problem.

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Mandates: Mounting Liabilities and Need for Reform

February 18, 2004 - The administration's budget summary outlines ideas for changing the mandate system. While these ideas have merit, they do not go far enough to correct the structural problems inherent in the existing system. We identify six areas of concern that merit legislative consideration in any reform proposal.

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Better Care Reduces Health Care Costs for Aged and Disabled Persons

February 18, 2004 - We describe the current Medi-Cal health care delivery system and evaluate its strengths and weaknesses in regard to addressing the health care needs of the aged and disabled. We identify additional aged and disabled persons that would benefit from receiving care from managed care plans. We recommend the enactment of legislation directing the Department of Health Services (DHS) to gradually shift an estimated 330,000 aged or disabled persons from the fee-for-service system to the Medi-Cal managed care system. We further recommend strengthening the existing Medi-Cal managed care system to address problems that limit the ability of DHS to ensure access to services and quality of care.

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Deficiencies: Rethinking How to Address Unexpected Expenses

February 18, 2004 - The Constitution gives the Legislature the power to appropriate funds. In order to address unexpected expenses (or "deficiencies") that arise during a fiscal year, the Legislature provides the administration with limited authority to spend at higher rates than foreseen in the budget act. The use of this deficiency process, however, has a history of problems—from being used to establish new programs with no statutory authority to serving as an alternative to the normal state budget process. Given this history, we outline a framework for legislative consideration which identifies a new approach to meet unexpected expenses. In our view, this framework would continue to allow necessary adjustments, while better protecting the appropriation authority of the Legislature.

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Another Property Tax Shift?

February 18, 2004 - Similar to the 1990s, the budget proposes to shift $1.3 billion of property taxes from local governments to K-14 districts and reduce state education spending by an equal amount. In our view, the Legislature should use its authority over this tax for the overall betterment of local government, not as a state rainy day fund. Accordingly, we recommend the Legislature reject this proposal. If the Legislature chooses to review proposals to reduce local taxes, we offer guidelines for this process and outline an alternative budget reduction consistent with these guidelines. While this alternative also represents an undesirable intrusion into local finance, it would have fewer negative effects.

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The 2004-05 Budget: Perspectives and Issues

February 18, 2004 - Perspectives on the state's fiscal condition and the budget proposed by the Governor for 2004-05.

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State Fiscal Picture 2004-05

February 18, 2004 - The basic budget problem currently facing the state involves an unfunded gap of slightly over $17 billion. Most of this—$15 billion—represents an ongoing projected structural imbalance between current-law revenues and expenditures in 2004-05 and beyond. A key element of the Governor's plan is the assumed approval of a $15 billion economic recovery bond on the March 2004 statewide ballot to pay off the accumulated 2002-03 budget deficit and help address the remaining budget shortfall. Our own evaluation of the proposal indicates that even if all of its elements were adopted, 2004-05 would end with a General Fund deficit of $0.8 billion. We further project that an ongoing General Fund structural deficit of close to $7 billion would exist beyond the budget year, absent corrective action.

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Perspectives on the Economy and Demographics 2004-05

February 18, 2004 - The U.S. and California economies are entering 2004 with significant momentum which we believe will continue through the budget year. The one major exception to the generally upbeat economic picture is employment growth, which continues to lag despite major gains in consumer and business spending and output in the economy. The lack of job growth has not held back the recovery so far, but continued softness in this key area could undermine consumer and business confidence, spending, and ultimately at some point in the future, the overall economic expansion.

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Perspectives on State Revenues 2004-05

February 18, 2004 - 2003-04 Forecast: We forecast that General Fund revenues and transfers will total $74.1 billion in the current year, a $2.8 billion (3.9 percent) increase from 2002-03. This is down $491 million from the budget forecast, of which $477 million is related to our lower estimate of personal income tax (PIT) revenues. 2004-05 Forecast: We forecast that revenues and transfers will total $75.9 billion in 2004-05, a $1.7 billion (2.4 percent) increase from the current year. This is down about $525 million from the new budget's projection, primarily reflecting the ongoing effects of the current-year reduction in PIT receipts.

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Major Expenditure Proposals in the 2004-05 Budget

February 18, 2004 - We discuss several of the most significant spending proposals in the budget including suspension of the Proposition 98 minimum education funding guarantee, fee increases in higher education, proposals intended to reduce expenditures for health and social services programs, criminal justice system reforms, and actions in transportation redirecting $2 billion to the General Fund.

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An Overview of State Expenditures 2004-05

February 18, 2004 - The Governor's budget proposes total spending in 2004-05 of $97.2 billion, including $76.1 billion from the state's General Fund and $21.1 billion from its special funds. We examine historical spending in relation to the state's economy, spending by program area, and spending adjusted for population and inflation.

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Analysis of the 2004-05 Budget Bill, Transportation Chapter

February 18, 2004 - Analysis of the 2004-05 Budget Bill, Transportation Chapter

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Analysis of the 2004-05 Budget Bill, Resources Chapter

February 18, 2004 - Analysis of the 2004-05 Budget Bill, Resources Chapter