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February 18, 2004 - The basic budget problem currently facing the state involves an unfunded gap of slightly over $17 billion. Most of this—$15 billion—represents an ongoing projected structural imbalance between current-law revenues and expenditures in 2004-05 and beyond. A key element of the Governor's plan is the assumed approval of a $15 billion economic recovery bond on the March 2004 statewide ballot to pay off the accumulated 2002-03 budget deficit and help address the remaining budget shortfall. Our own evaluation of the proposal indicates that even if all of its elements were adopted, 2004-05 would end with a General Fund deficit of $0.8 billion. We further project that an ongoing General Fund structural deficit of close to $7 billion would exist beyond the budget year, absent corrective action.
February 18, 2004 - The U.S. and California economies are entering 2004 with significant momentum which we believe will continue through the budget year. The one major exception to the generally upbeat economic picture is employment growth, which continues to lag despite major gains in consumer and business spending and output in the economy. The lack of job growth has not held back the recovery so far, but continued softness in this key area could undermine consumer and business confidence, spending, and ultimately at some point in the future, the overall economic expansion.
February 18, 2004 - 2003-04 Forecast: We forecast that General Fund revenues and transfers will total $74.1 billion in the current year, a $2.8 billion (3.9 percent) increase from 2002-03. This is down $491 million from the budget forecast, of which $477 million is related to our lower estimate of personal income tax (PIT) revenues. 2004-05 Forecast: We forecast that revenues and transfers will total $75.9 billion in 2004-05, a $1.7 billion (2.4 percent) increase from the current year. This is down about $525 million from the new budget's projection, primarily reflecting the ongoing effects of the current-year reduction in PIT receipts.
February 18, 2004 - We discuss several of the most significant spending proposals in the budget including suspension of the Proposition 98 minimum education funding guarantee, fee increases in higher education, proposals intended to reduce expenditures for health and social services programs, criminal justice system reforms, and actions in transportation redirecting $2 billion to the General Fund.
February 18, 2004 - The Governor's budget proposes total spending in 2004-05 of $97.2 billion, including $76.1 billion from the state's General Fund and $21.1 billion from its special funds. We examine historical spending in relation to the state's economy, spending by program area, and spending adjusted for population and inflation.
February 18, 2004 - Our annual detailed examination of the Budget Bill based on the Governor's Budget. It includes hundreds of findings and recommendations related to education, health and social services, criminal justice, transportation, resources, capital outlay, information technology, and local government.
February 13, 2004 - The expressed goal in current law is that all Californians should be afforded the opportunity to receive a college education. The Master Plan for Higher Education, originally adopted by the Legislature in 1960, has served as the state's higher education roadmap. This report describes the state's admissions policies and practices, and assesses how they relate to the Master Plan. While we conclude that the Master Plan's commitment to access can be maintained even in the current fiscal environment, this will require some adjustments in current policies and practices.