Legislative Analyst's Office, February 20, 1996

The Impact of the "Three Strikes and You're Out" Law on California's Justice System

What Do We Know About "Three Strikes" After Two Years?

• Impacts have varied substantially among the counties.
• Some major counties--particularly Los Angeles--have had major impacts.
• Counties have responded in a number of ways to the impacts of "Three Strikes."
• Impacts on state prisons are starting to be felt and are likely to be very substantial.

• All space to house inmates will be exhausted in mid-1998.

• Magnitude of the impact on crime is unclear.

What Are Some Impacts Of the "Three Strikes" Law On the Local Justice System?

• The impact of "Three Strikes" varies substantially among counties.
• Many large counties--but not all--are reporting significant increases in criminal justice workloads as a consequence of the "Three Strikes" law.
• Variation in criminal justice impacts is not uncommon, given that there is significant flexibility in the local criminal justice system.
• Variation should be expected, given that the law provides significant discretion to prosecutors on charging of "Three Strikes" cases.

• Thousands of cases are being prosecuted.
• Many thousands of second- and third-strike cases have been or are currently being prosecuted statewide.
• Most of these cases probably would have been prosecuted even without the law.

• Fewer offenders are pleading guilty.
• Although more than 90 percent of all felony cases are disposed of through plea bargaining in which the defendant ultimately agrees to plead guilty, many fewer offenders are agreeing to plead guilty in "Three Strikes" cases, presumably because of the much longer sentences.

• More jury trials.
• Because fewer defendants are pleading guilty, there are many more cases going to trial in a number of jurisdictions.

• More persons awaiting trial in county jail.
• As a consequence of more jury trials, more defendants are being held in county jail during trial or while awaiting trial.

• Fewer persons coming to state prison than originally expected.
• The backlog of cases awaiting trial has resulted in a slower-than-anticipated growth in the prison population.
• In addition, the Department of Corrections has revised its original estimates to take additional factors into consideration that have diminished the potential impacts somewhat (for example, revising assumptions to reduce the impact of the probation prohibitions in the measure).

How Has the Local Justice System Responded to the Increase in Workload Brought About by "Three Strikes"?

• Backlogs pushing some cases out of court.

• The backlog of criminal cases has pushed some misdemeanor and low-level felony cases out of court, as well as civil cases in some jurisdictions.
• The 1996-97 Governor's Budget proposes $3.4 million to establish a judicial "'Three Strikes' relief team" of retired judges to hear the backlog of criminal cases.

• Some offenders released early from county jail.
• Because of the increase in defendants in county jail awaiting trial, some counties have had to release more sentenced and pre-sentenced non-"Three Strikes" offenders from custody. Some counties are no longer booking misdemeanants.

• Some increases in jail security.

• Some counties have reported the need to increase jail security because second- and third-strike offenders are considered higher-risk offenders. Some counties have reported increases in assaults on staff.

• Increases in local criminal justice workloads have placed more fiscal pressure on counties.

• Many counties report the need to augment prosecution, public defense, jail, and court budgets as a result of "Three Strikes"-related workload increases.
• Los Angeles County recently submitted a test claim with the Commission on State Mandates, seeking reimbursement of $169 million from the state for the costs of "Three Strikes" to the county in 1994-95 and 1995-96.

Who Are the "Three Strikes" Offenders?

• Number of Offenders: 15,839 second- and third-strike offenders sent to state prison (as of January 31, 1996).
• 14,497 second-strikers (who receive twice the prison sentence they would have otherwise received, and fewer credits to reduce time in prison).
• 1,342 third-strikers (who receive a sentence of 25-years-to-life).

• Entry to State Prison: About 800 second-strikers and 100 third-strikers arrive in prison each month.

• About 71 second-strikers have already served their sentences and been released on parole.

• Commitment Offense: Most second- and third-strikers are committed to prison for a nonviolent, nonserious offense--more so than for the non-"Three Strikes" population.
• Only about 20 percent of second-strikers and 38 percent of third-strikers were committed to prison for a serious or violent offense.
• About 35 percent of the non-"Three Strikes" population was committed for a violent or serious offense.
• Among second-strikers, the largest offense categories are possession of controlled substances (21 percent), petty theft with a prior theft (13 percent), and second-degree burglary (9.7 percent).
• Among third-strikers, the largest offense categories are first-degree burglary (13 percent), robbery (12 percent), and possession of controlled substances (12 percent).

• County of Commitment: Second- and third-strikers are being sent to prison in numbers that are not necessarily reflective of each county's general prison commitment patterns, as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1
"Three Strikes" Offenders in Prison By County of Commitment
		"Three Strikes" Offenders
Selected Counties	Total Prison Population	Second-Strikers	Third-Strikers
Alameda	3.2%	1.2%	1.6.%
Kern	3.1	3.0	5.6
Los Angeles	35.8	44.2	38.5
Orange	5.2	5.0	3.9
Riverside	4.4	3.6	3.7
Sacramento	4.1	4.6	5.1
San Bernardino	5.3	4.2	4.5
San Diego	8.2	11.9	14.2
San Francisco	2.8	1.7	1.3
Santa Clara	3.6	3.8	3.4

• Age: Most offenders are younger than the general prison population, as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2
"Three Strikes" Offenders in Prison by Age
		"Three Strikes" Offenders
Age	Total Prison Population	Second-Strikers	Third-Strikers
Under 20	1.4%	7.3%	7.3%
20 to 29	38.6	47.0	42.3
30 to 39	40.0	34.0	35.2
40 to 49	15.5	10.0	11.8
50 and over	4.5	1.7	3.3
Totals	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

• Ethnicity and Sex: African Americans make up the largest group of second- and third-strikers, and their percentages are greater than the percentages for the total prison population; a very small proportion are women, as shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3
"Three Strikes" Offenders in Prison By Ethnicity and Sex
		"Three Strikes" Offenders
	Total Prison Population	Second-Strikers	Third-Strikers
Ethnicity
African American	31.5%	37.1%	43.7%
Hispanic	33.9	32.6	27.8
White	29.7	26.6	24.5
Other	4.9	3.7	4.0
Totals	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Sex
Male	93.3%	94.9%	98.4%
Female	6.7	5.1	1.6
Totals	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

What About the Impact of "Three Strikes" on Crime?

• While there is little question that "Three Strikes" is having some impact on reducing crime, it is far too early to say anything definitive about the magnitude of the effects.
• Although crime rates have declined in California in recent years, they were declining before "Three Strikes" became law.
• In addition, crime rates have been declining nationally--including in those states that do not have a "Three Strikes" law.
• Reductions in crime are brought about by numerous, complicated factors, including:

• Demographic trends.
• Law enforcement practices.
• Citizen response and reporting of crime.
• Deterrence factors.
• Incapacitation factors.

• Although an important element in crime reduction, the impact of incarceration on crime should not be overestimated.
• "Three Strikes" has the clear ability to reduce crime by incapacitating offenders who serve long prison sentences, thus eliminating their ability to commit another offense.
• Incarceration--particularly "Three Strikes" incarceration--generally comes relatively late in an offender's criminal career, and most crime is committed by very young people.
• The justice system only deals with a small portion of total crime and its ability to affect crime levels through incarceration is limited.
• In order for "deterrence" to work, a prison sentence must affect an offender's social status and be seen as punishing, and it is less likely to do so for "Three Strikes" offenders.
• For some offenders, a criminal action is an impulsive response to an immediately stressful situation, and efforts at deterrence are not likely to have much impact.
• In order to reduce crime, an offender who is incarcerated must not be replaced with a "new recruit," which is the case with some offenses for which there is a "labor market," such as drug offenses.

What Are Some of the Unanswered Questions About "Three Strikes?"

• What is the impact on the justice system as a whole?

• Most research on "Three Strikes" is too "compartmentalized"--specific impacts on parts of the criminal justice system, such as courts and prisons, but not on the system as a whole.
• The 1995 Budget Act required the Judicial Council and the Board of Corrections, in cooperation with the Office of Criminal Justice Planning, to monitor the statewide impacts of "Three Strikes."

• Why has the impact been different in different counties?

• What are some counties doing to mitigate the impacts?
• Are there lessons to share?

• What about the impacts on crime?

• Are there "unintended consequences" that will mitigate positive impacts?

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