Legislative Analyst's Office, October 14, 1997

The "Three Strikes and You're Out" Law: An Update

Second- and Third-Strike
Inmate Population Increasing

• The Department of Corrections (CDC) projects that the second- and third-strike prison population will exceed 55,000 by 2002, when one of four inmates in prison will be a "second-" or "third-striker."
• It should be noted that the CDC has consistently overestimated the number of second- and third-strikers, although the estimates are becoming more accurate as the state gains more experience with the "Three Strikes" population.

Commitment Offenses Differ Substantially Among Second- and Third-Strikers

• Less than one-fourth of second-strikers were admitted to prison for a violent or serious offense.
• The most common second-strike offenses are possession of a controlled substance, petty theft with a prior theft, and second degree burglary.
• Slightly more than half of third-strikers were admitted to prison for a violent or serious offense.
• The most common third-strike offenses are robbery and first degree burglary (both are considered violent or serious offenses), followed by possession of a controlled substance, second degree burglary, and possession of a weapon.

Counties' Commitment Patterns Vary

Selected Counties	Total Prison Population	Three Strikes Offenders
		Second-Strikers	Third-Strikers
Alameda	3.1%	1.2%	1.6%
Kern	3.1	2.8	4.9
Los Angeles	35.8	43.9	41.5
Orange	5.4	5.3	5.2
Riverside	4.6	3.9	3.5
Sacramento	4.1	4.5	6.1
San Bernardino	5.6	4.5	5.1
San Diego	8.4	11.0	9.8
San Francisco	2.5	1.0	0.5
Santa Clara	3.6	3.9	4.0

• Second- and third-strikers are being sent to prison in numbers that are not necessarily reflective of each county's general prison commitment patterns, as shown above.
• The differences are primarily the result of variations in charging practices of prosecutors and sentencing practices of courts.

About 800 Second-Strikers
Admitted to Prison Each Month

• The number of second-strikers admitted to prison monthly has remained relatively constant in the past two years. The number has changed little since the People v. Romero court decision, which specifies that judges retain the authority to not consider prior convictions under the Three Strikes law.
• Since its inception, there has been a total of 29,007 second-strikers admitted to prison.
• As of the end of August 1997, there were about 24,600 second-strikers in prison or in a community correctional facility and about 4,400 second-strikers on parole.

About 120 Third-Strikers
Admitted to Prison Each Month

• The number of third-strikers admitted to prison monthly has increased only slightly in the past two years. The number has changed little since the Romero decision.
• Since its inception, there has been a total of 3,568 third-strikers admitted to state prison. As of the end of August 1997, all were still incarcerated.

Prison System Faces Serious Housing Gap

	Capacity of Funded Prisons	June 2006 Inmate Population	Projected Housing Gap in 2006
Women	13,203	17,560	-4,357
Men (by security classification level)
Reception	20,526	28,298	-7,772
I	26,890	50,643	-23,753
II	40,929	46,907	-5,978
III	39,928	59,777	-19,849
IV	26,225	36,035	-9,810
Special Housing	3,030	3,045	-15
Totals	170,731	242,265	-71,534

• The total state prison population will increase substantially in the coming years, in large part because of the Three Strikes law.
• Based on the most recent projections, the prison system will exhaust all available space by late 2000 and there will be a shortage of more than 70,000 beds to house the projected inmate population by 2006.

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