Legislative Analyst's Office, December 1998

1998 Cal Facts Program Trends Part II

Resident Student Fees Are Significantly Below Comparison Institutions

1998-99

• Fees at UC are 21 percent below the average of the four public universities with which the state compares UC faculty salaries.



• CSU fees are 52 percent below its 15 "comparison" public universities.



• Community college fees are 76 percent below the average of community college fees nationwide.



• Fee revenues account for 20 percent (UC), 18 percent (CSU), and 4 percent (CCC) of instructional funding for each system.

CalWORKs Program: Major Features

---

CalWORKs Caseload Declining

CalWORKs Cases
(In Thousands)

• After peaking in 1994-95, the caseload declined 20 percent by 1997-98 and is projected to decline an additional 9.3 percent in 1998-99.



• About two-thirds of the recent decline in the caseload can be explained by demographic trends and the state's economic expansion.



• The remaining decline may in part be explained by: (1) an "announcement effect" of welfare reform that affected behavior prior to policy changes; (2) a labor market effect whereby welfare recipients benefit more as the economy approaches full employment (where the supply of labor is more scarce); and (3) implementation of the CalWORKs program.

---

SSI/SSP Caseloads Leveling Off

SSI/SSP Cases
(In Thousands)

• The SSI/SSP program provides cash assistance to low income persons who are elderly, disabled, or blind.



• Following a period of rapid growth through the early 1990s, the caseload growth has moderated, in part because of federal law changes that restrict eligibility for disabled children and certain noncitizens.



• California has created a temporary state-only funded program for certain noncitizens. In 1998-99, the average monthly state-only caseload is projected to be approximately 1,700.

CalWORKs and SSI/SSP Maximum Monthly Grants

January 1999

• When combined with Food Stamps, California's maximum CalWORKs grant is about 75 percent of the federal poverty guideline. Of the ten largest states, California will provide the highest maximum grant, effective November 1998.

• California's SSI/SSP grant for individuals is 101 percent of the federal poverty guideline. The grant for couples is 133 percent of the poverty guideline. Of the ten largest states, California provided the highest maximum SSI/SSP grants as of January1998.

Most Reports of Child Abuse/Neglect Are Closed After Initial Intake

1996

• There were about 707,000 reports of child abuse/neglect in 1996. Between 1989 and 1996, the number of reports of abuse/neglect rose from 71 to 81 per 1,000 children in the statewide population.



• Most reports (75 percent) were closed after the initial telephone assessment or in-person investigation. One in six reports resulted in a case which was closed after emergency services (crisis intervention, counseling) were provided.

• A small proportion of reports of abuse/neglect resulted in an ongoing Child Welfare Services case in which (1) the child was removed from his/her home and placed in foster care (4 percent) or (2) the child remained in his/her home and the family received ongoing "family maintenance" services designed to reduce the risk of future abuse/neglect (5 percent).

Types of Foster Care Placements

Use of Foster Family Agency Homes Increasing

• California's average monthly foster care caseload increased from 62,000 in 1989 to 108,000 in 1998 an average annual increase of about 6 percent.



• The proportion of children placed with foster family agency (FFA) homes increased from 3 percent to 17 percent between 1989 and 1998.



• These changes are probably the result of (1) FFA homes being used as alternatives to group homes, and (2) former foster family homes becoming affiliated with foster family agencies (which generally provide higher grants and additional support services).

Medi-Cal Caseload Falls But Cost per Eligible Still Grows

• The Medi-Cal caseload grew rapidly during the early 1990s due to (1) eligibility expansions and (2) increased welfare caseloads during the recession. Since 1995-96, however, the Medi-Cal caseload has declined somewhat, reflecting lower welfare caseloads.

• Despite recent caseload declines, the total cost of the Medi-Cal program remains roughly flat because the cost of services per eligible person continues to rise. This is due to: (1) increased health care costs; and (2) a shift to a more expensive caseload "mix," (the number of families on welfare has declined, but the number of higher-cost elderly and disabled remains essentially unchanged.)

California's Crime Rate Reduced Substantially Since 1980 Peak

Rate Per 100,000 Population

• The crime rate reached its peak in 1980, declined for four years, increased slightly in the late 1980s, and has declined each year since 1991. The 1997 California Crime Index (CCI) is now roughly equivalent to the rate in 1967.



• Most researchers believe that there are many reasons for the decline since the 1980 peak, including the aging of the population (particularly the aging of "baby-boomers"), the decline in drug seizures (particularly "crack" cocaine), incapacitation and deterrent effects of recently enacted criminal penalties, improved economy (and thus more jobs), better policing techniques (such as "community-oriented" policing), and relatively peaceful gang situations in some urban areas.

---

Violent Crime Down Substantially Over Past Ten Years

Change in Violent Crime Rates, 1987 to 1997

• Violent crime--the types of crime that have the most significant negative personal consequences on citizens and usually generate very high costs to society--has declined 16 percent over the past decade.



• It is particularly significant that the largest drops have occurred in homicide (down 27percent) and rape (down 30percent), because these crimes were already the types of violent crime that were least likely to be committed.



• The reasons for the drop in violent crime probably include the same reasons cited for the drop in overall crime (see page 66).
  

---

Crime Rate Declines Marginally Despite Sharp Rise in Imprisonment

Crime Rate/Incarceration Rate Indexed to 1972

• California's incarceration rate has increased more than 400percent since 1972 while the crime rate has declined about 20percent.



• Some researchers argue that this situation should be expected because they believe that incarcerating more people for a longer period of time has no impact on the crime rate. Others disagree and argue that the crime rate would have increased markedly if the rate of imprisonment had not increased so significantly.

---

Felony Arrests Highest Among the Young

1997 Rate Per 100,000 Age-Eligible Population

• The felony arrest rate peaks at age 18 for property crime and age 21 for violent and drug-related crime.



• The peak ages for arrest have actually increased in recent years. In 1993, the arrest rate for property crime peaked at age 16 and age 18 for violent crime.



• Although persons age 21 and under have a higher arrest rate than persons over the age of 21, they account for a smaller proportion of total arrests (30percent for persons age 21 and under versus 70percent for persons over the age of 21). (Data not shown in figure.)

California's Crime Rate Near Middle of Other Large States

1996 Rate Per 100,000 Population

• Using measures of crime employed by the federal government, California's 1996 crime rate is only slightly higher than the nation's rate and is fifth highest among the ten largest states.



• Florida's 1996 rate was the highest among the large states and was 44percent higher than California's rate. California's rate was about 2percent higher than the rate for the other 49 states and the District of Columbia.

• As in California, the national crime rate and the rates for the ten largest states have been on the decline in recent years.

Crime Rates Vary Widely Among Large Counties

1996 Crime Rates Per 100,000 Population

• Among the counties with populations of 500,000 or more, Fresno had the highest crime rate in 1996about 53percent higher than the statewide rate. San Mateo's rate was the lowest and was less than half the statewide rate.



• Variations among county crime rates are probably explained by factors such as demography (areas with larger populations of young men tend to have higher crime rates), wealth (and thus availability of jobs and crime-fighting resources), degree of urbanization, and location of certain factors associated with crime (such as gangs and drug sellers).

Return to 1998 Cal Facts Program Trends Part I

Return to LAO Home Page