This post compares the administration's multi-year forecast revenue estimates with those generated under the LAO May 2016 economic growth scenario through 2019-20. (This does not reflect required transfers to the Budget Stabilization Account under Proposition 2 under the LAO figures, as those estimates are still under development.)
We discuss the ways that economic assumptions affect state budget analyses and how policy makers and others should consider these assumptions.
As part of the annual budget development process, the administration provides us with its current estimates of Proposition 30 revenues through 2018-19. 2018-19 is the last fiscal year affected by the Proposition 30 income tax increases for high-income Californians.
We have received data on January 2015 state revenue collections from California's tax agencies.
The expiration of the Proposition 30 sales tax increase affects the sales tax projections in our new Fiscal Outlook publication.
In conjunction with the November 2015 edition of our Fiscal Outlook, we update our estimates for the revenue effects of Proposition 30 (2012).