May 2018
Proposition 98 Overview
Proposition 98 Information Under LAO May Outlook
(Dollars in Millions)
| 2017-18 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | |
| Minimum Guaranteea | |||||
| General Fund | $53,189 | $54,105 | $54,909 | $57,198 | $59,776 |
| Local property tax | 22,399 | 23,864 | 25,334 | 26,870 | 28,442 |
| Total | $75,588 | $77,970 | $80,243 | $84,067 | $88,218 |
| Change in General Fund From Prior Year | |||||
| Amount | $3,195 | $917 | $804 | $2,289 | $2,578 |
| Percent change | 6.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% |
| Change in Local Property Tax From Prior Year | |||||
| Amount | $1,003 | $1,465 | $1,470 | $1,536 | $1,573 |
| Percent change | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% |
| Change in Guarantee From Prior Year | |||||
| Amount | $4,198 | $2,382 | $2,273 | $3,824 | $4,151 |
| Percent change | 5.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% |
| Inputs | |||||
| General Fund taxesb | $133,937 | $139,208 | $143,793 | $149,568 | $156,309 |
| K-12 average daily attendance | 5,959,248 | 5,929,452 | 5,906,327 | 5,876,795 | 5,838,008 |
| Growth Factors | |||||
| Per capita personal income | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.8% |
| Per capita General Fundc | 9.6 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 4.5 |
| K-12 average daily attendance | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.7 |
| Outcomes | |||||
| Proposition 98 operative "test" | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Maintenance factor: | |||||
| Amount created/paid (+/-) | -$1,586 | – | – | – | – |
| Amount outstanding | – | – | – | – | – |
| PSSSA deposit | – | – | – | $487 | $316 |
| a The LAO outlook assumes the Legislature adopts the Governor's proposal to rebench the minimum guarantee for certain preschool costs shifted into Proposition 98 in 2015-16. | |||||
| b Reflects General Fund revenue that affects the calculation of the minimum guarantee. | |||||
| c Reflects per capita General Fund plus 0.5 percent (one of the Test 3 factors). | |||||
| PSSSA = Public School System Stabilization Account. | |||||