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Report

The 2022-23 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2022 - This brief presents our office’s independent assessment of the condition of the state General Fund budget through 2025-26 under our forecast of revenues and spending, assuming the Governor’s May Revision policies were adopted.

Handout

The 2022-23 Budget: Overview of May Revision K-12 Education Proposals

May 18, 2022 - This handout analyzes the overall structure of the Governor's May Revision plan for school funding, including an assessment of the major augmentations and the underlying estimates of the Proposition 98 minimum guarantee.

Handout

Higher Education May Revision Proposals

May 18, 2022 - Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Subcommittee No. 1 on Education

Handout

Higher Education May Revision Proposals

May 17, 2022 - Presented to: Assembly Budget Subcommittee No. 2 on Education Finance

Report

The 2022-23 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 16, 2022 - On May 13, 2022, Governor Newsom presented a revised state budget proposal to the Legislature. (This annual proposed revised budget is called the “May Revision.”) In this brief, we provide a summary of the Governor's revised budget, focusing on the overall condition and structure of the state General Fund—the budget's main operating account. In the coming days, we will analyze the plan in more detail and provide additional comments in hearing testimony and online. The information presented in this brief is based on our best understanding of the administration's proposals as of 11:00 AM, May 14, 2022. In many areas of the budget, this understanding will continue to evolve as we receive more information. We only plan to update this brief for very significant changes (that is, those greater than $500 million).

Update (5/20/22): Updated to reflect information about state appropriations limit (SAL) excluded spending and other budget proposals.

Post

The 2022-23 Budget: Vote by Mail Ballots: Prepaid Postage

May 13, 2022 - This post provides our comments and recommendation to approve the Governor's proposal to fund the prepaid postage mandate for vote by mail ballots.

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The 2022-23 Budget: Fuel Price and Other Fiscal Relief Options

May 12, 2022 - In response to increasing prices across the economy—particularly fuel prices—the Legislature is contemplating a number of policies for providing fiscal relief to Californians. In this post, we identify key questions for the Legislature to consider when analyzing the merits of the options proposed by the Governor and in designing its own relief package.

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The 2022-23 Budget: Update on K-12 Student Attendance

May 11, 2022 - In early March, the California Department of Education published the first report of 2021-22 attendance data. In this post, we provide background on the calculation of school attendance, describe findings from the updated data, and discuss a few key issues to provide greater context for the findings.

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The 2022-23 Budget: Office of Planning and Research Higher Education Proposals

May 10, 2022 - The Office of Planning and Research (OPR) is tasked by state law to support statewide planning and research activities. Among its many activities, the office has overseen certain higher education initiatives. This post analyzes three higher education OPR proposals in the Governor’s January budget for 2022‑23 related to the California Education Learning Laboratory, the Golden State Awards, and Carnegie Science.

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The 2022-23 Budget: Hastings College of the Law

May 10, 2022 - The Governor’s January budget proposes a $2 million (12 percent) General Fund base increase for the Hastings College of the Law (Hastings) in 2022‑23. After accounting for other revenue increases (primarily from student tuition revenue), Hastings’ total ongoing core budget would increase by $5 million (6.7 percent). Generally, we think the Governor’s proposal is a good starting point for budget deliberations. This is because Hastings’ corresponding expenditure plan primarily focuses on basic workload adjustments. That said, we emphasize that this proposal is a starting point. The Legislature likely will want to weigh this proposal against its other 2022‑23 budget priorities. Moreover, we note that Hastings could face higher‑than‑expected costs in 2022‑23 as part of its recent initiative to change its name.

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The 2022-23 Budget: Pesticide Enforcement

May 5, 2022 - In this post, we assess the Governor’s 2022-23 budget proposals to (1) provide additional administrative penalty authority to the Department of Pesticide Regulation (DPR) for pesticide use and residue violations, (2) increase several existing pesticide-related penalties, and (3) provide funding to DPR to investigate and pursue pesticide use and residue enforcement cases.

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The 2022-23 Budget: Cap-and-Trade Revenue Update

April 29, 2022 - This budget post provides an update on cap-and-trade revenue and resources available for discretionary spending.

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Strong Tax Collections Belie California's Challenging Fiscal Outlook

April 26, 2022 - Given the persistent strength in state tax collections, it may come as a surprise that California’s General Fund likely faces a budget problem in the coming years. Yet this is the key takeaway from a recent fiscal analysis of 10,000 possible revenue scenarios conducted by our office. In 95 percent of our simulations, the state encountered a budget problem by 2025-26. Notably, the likelihood of a budget problem largely is impervious to the future trajectory of state tax revenues. That is, whether revenues trend upward or downward from here, the state likely faces budget deficits. The central implication of our findings is stark and suggests that in the interest of fiscal resilience, the Legislature should consider rejecting a substantial portion of the Governor’s January spending proposals.

Report

The 2022-23 Budget: Student Housing

April 8, 2022 - This brief analyzes the Governor’s proposed first-round awards for the Higher Education Student Housing Grant Program.

Handout

Overview of Last-Mile Broadband Infrastructure Project Administration and Funding

April 6, 2022 - Presented to: Assembly Committee on Communications and Conveyance