Income Tax Withholding Tracker: September 1 - September 24 September 24, 2021

The California income tax withholding surge continues, as September collections to date are 23.5 percent above last September.


Home Sales Update: August 2021 September 24, 2021

The state recorded 37,275 home sales in August, slightly above the recent average for the month.


Home Prices Update: August 2021 September 23, 2021

California home prices are up 21.7 percent over 12 months, although the rate of growth slowed in August.


August 2021 State Tax Collections September 20, 2021

Through the first two months of the 2021-22 fiscal year, collections from the state’s three largest taxes are running 20 percent ($3.6 billion) ahead of budget projections. 


2021-22 “Big Three” Revenue Outlook Update: September 2021 September 20, 2021

Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a strong chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the budget act assumption of $170 billion in 2021-22. 


What Do Unanticipated Revenues Mean for the Surplus? September 20, 2021

New, unanticipated state revenues do not result in a dollar-for-dollar increase in the state’s surplus. Instead, on average, and additional $1 of unanticipated revenues can result in about $0.40 of additional surplus, as a result of the state’s constitutional requirements to allocate revenues to specific uses. 


A New Method For Current Year Revenue Forecasting September 20, 2021

We discuss our new model which provides a monthly update of our forecast of current year collections from the state’s “big three” taxes. 


August 2021 Jobs Report September 17, 2021

California employers added 104,300 net new jobs in August, a strong showing despite the national slowdown.


U.S. Retail Sales Update: August 2021 September 17, 2021

U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) grew 0.7 percent from July to August. Retail sales remain elevated due to dramatic growth in January and March. 


Building Permits Update: July 2021 September 7, 2021

California builders recorded 9,676 permits in July, 5 percent above the same month in 2020.


Income Tax Withholding Tracker: August 1 - August 27 September 7, 2021

California income tax withholding remained very strong in August, coming in nearly 20 percent above August 2020.


Exploring Recent Trends in California Births August 30, 2021

In 2020, CA births dropped 6%, the biggest one-year decline since 1972. This post offers some observations on this trend. 


August 2021 Cap-and-Trade Auction Update August 26, 2021

August 2021 auction generates over $1.1 billion in state revenue.


Home Sales Update: July 2021 August 25, 2021

The pace of home sales in California continued to moderate in July, with 38,389 sales recorded.


Home Prices Update: July 2021 August 25, 2021

California home prices continued to soar in July and are now up 21.2 percent over the past 12 months.