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Cannabis Tax Revenue Update: May 2023 May 23, 2023
The May Revision anticipates a funding shortfall for programs supported by cannabis tax revenues. Our new revenue estimates are slightly higher, yielding a slightly smaller funding shortfall. Specifically, our estimate for 2022-23 cannabis retail excise tax revenue is $509 million. This is $24 million above the administration’s May Revision estimate but $133 million below the January Governor’s Budget estimate.
Monthly Jobs Report May 19, 2023
California businesses added 67,000 jobs in April, an above average pace after a sluggish start to the year. Despite employment gains, the state's unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.5 percent because more workers re-entered the labor force.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: April 2023 May 16, 2023
U.S. retail sales have dropped 0.9 percent over the last 3 months and grown 1.6 percent over the last 12 months.
The 2023-24 Budget: May Revenue Outlook May 13, 2023
We discuss our May revenue outlook.
Inflation Tracker May 10, 2023
Annual inflation is below the 2022 peak, but core measures have leveled off in recent months.
Income Tax Withholding Tracker April 28, 2023
April PIT withholding came in $705 million (7 percent) below projections included in the recently released Governor's Budget. Since the Governor's Budget projections were released in January, withholding is $2.9 billion (8 percent) below the administration's projections. For the fiscal year so far, withholding is running 4.5 percent lower than last year, with most of the weakness coming in November and December of last year.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: March 2023 April 14, 2023
U.S. retail sales have grown 1.9 percent over the last 3 months and 2.9 percent over the last 12 months. Sales have grown faster than inflation over the last 3 months but slower than inflation over the last 12.
Updated 2022-23 "Big Three" Revenue Outlook March 15, 2023
Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently estimate that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes—personal income, sales, and corporation taxes—are likely to fall below the Governor's Budget assumption of $200 billion in 2022-23.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: February 2022 March 15, 2023
U.S. retail sales have grown 2 percent over the last 3 months and 5.4 percent over the last 12 months.
An Update on California Competes March 10, 2023
We look at recent program statistics and research on California Competes.
Cannabis Tax Revenue Update February 22, 2023
Revenue from the cannabis retail excise tax has declined for six straight quarters.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: January 2023 February 15, 2023
U.S. retail sales have grown 6.4 percent over the last 12 months, but have been flat after accounting for inflation.
Updated Inflation Outlook January 22, 2023
Based on the most recent economic data, we now estimate that annual inflation will drop to about 4 percent by the second quarter of 2023.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: December 2022 January 18, 2023
U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) declined 1.1 percent from November to December. The two-month decline was 2.1 percent. In the last 30 years, two-month drops of at least 2 percent have happened around recessions.
U.S. Retail Sales Update: November 2022 December 15, 2022
U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) declined 0.6 percent from October to November.