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Updated 2022-23 "Big Three" Revenue Outlook January 13, 2023
Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently estimate that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes—personal income, sales, and corporation taxes—are likely to fall below the Governor's Budget assumption of $200 billion in 2022-23.
October Tax Collections November 17, 2022
Although October colletions from the state's “big three” tax revenues—personal income, corporation, and sales taxes—came in far ahead of Budget Act assumptions, this is not indicative of better than expected revenue performance for 2022-23 overall. Instead, a closer look at the data shows that the recent trend of revenue weakness continued in October.
Income Tax Witholding Tracker: August 2022 September 1, 2022
August state income tax withholding was down $450 million (6.1 percent) compared to last year.
The 2022-23 Budget: May Revenue Outlook May 16, 2022
We discuss our May revenue outlook.
2021-22 “Big Three” Revenue Outlook Update: March 2022 March 28, 2022
Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a very good chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the Governor's Budget assumption of $185 billion in 2021-22 by at least several billion dollars.
2021-22 “Big Three” Revenue Outlook Update: February 2022 February 17, 2022
Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a very good chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the Governor's Budget assumption of $185 billion in 2021-22 by at least several billion dollars.
2021-22 “Big Three” Revenue Outlook Update: January 2022 January 21, 2022
Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a strong chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the Governor's Budget assumption of $185 billion in 2021-22.
Income Tax Withholding Tracker: November 1 - November 30 November 30, 2021
California income tax withholding collections in November were up nearly a third over last November.
2022-23 Fiscal Outlook Revenue Estimates November 17, 2021
We discuss the revenue estimates in our recently released Fiscal Outlook.
Income Tax Withholding Tracker: October 1 - October 31 November 3, 2021
California income tax withholding in October was up 8.2 percent over October 2020, a slower growth rate than in the three previous months.
2021-22 “Big Three” Revenue Outlook Update: October 2021 October 22, 2021
Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a good chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the budget act assumption of $170 billion in 2021-22 by at least several billion dollars.
Income Tax Withholding Tracker: September 1 - September 24 September 24, 2021
The California income tax withholding surge continues, as September collections to date are 23.5 percent above last September.
August 2021 State Tax Collections September 20, 2021
Through the first two months of the 2021-22 fiscal year, collections from the state’s three largest taxes are running 20 percent ($3.6 billion) ahead of budget projections.
2021-22 “Big Three” Revenue Outlook Update: September 2021 September 20, 2021
Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a strong chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the budget act assumption of $170 billion in 2021-22.
A New Method For Current Year Revenue Forecasting September 20, 2021
We discuss our new model which provides a monthly update of our forecast of current year collections from the state’s “big three” taxes.