State Budget Condition Publications
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The 2022-23 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook
May 24, 2022 - This brief presents our office’s independent assessment of the condition of the state General Fund budget through 2025-26 under our forecast of revenues and spending, assuming the Governor’s May Revision policies were adopted.
The 2022-23 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision
May 16, 2022 - On May 13, 2022, Governor Newsom presented a revised state budget proposal to the Legislature. (This annual proposed revised budget is called the “May Revision.”) In this brief, we provide a summary of the Governor's revised budget, focusing on the overall condition and structure of the state General Fund—the budget's main operating account. In the coming days, we will analyze the plan in more detail and provide additional comments in hearing testimony and online. The information presented in this brief is based on our best understanding of the administration's proposals as of 11:00 AM, May 14, 2022. In many areas of the budget, this understanding will continue to evolve as we receive more information. We only plan to update this brief for very significant changes (that is, those greater than $500 million).
Update (5/20/22): Updated to reflect information about state appropriations limit (SAL) excluded spending and other budget proposals.
Strong Tax Collections Belie California's Challenging Fiscal Outlook
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April 26, 2022 - Given the persistent strength in state tax collections, it may come as a surprise that California’s General Fund likely faces a budget problem in the coming years. Yet this is the key takeaway from a recent fiscal analysis of 10,000 possible revenue scenarios conducted by our office. In 95 percent of our simulations, the state encountered a budget problem by 2025-26. Notably, the likelihood of a budget problem largely is impervious to the future trajectory of state tax revenues. That is, whether revenues trend upward or downward from here, the state likely faces budget deficits. The central implication of our findings is stark and suggests that in the interest of fiscal resilience, the Legislature should consider rejecting a substantial portion of the Governor’s January spending proposals.
The Definition of Qualified Capital Outlay for the State Appropriations Limit
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February 18, 2022 - In this post, we provide our view on some commonly asked questions about the statutory definition of capital outlay for the state appropriations limit (SAL).
The 2022-23 Budget: Initial Comments on the State Appropriations Limit Proposal
February 4, 2022 - This post provides our office’s initial analysis on and comments about the Governor’s proposals to address state appropriations limit (SAL) requirements in the 2022-23 Governor’s budget.
The 2022-23 Budget: Overview of Proposition 98 Proposals
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January 27, 2022 - This analysis describes the overall structure of the Governor's plan for school and community college funding, including the major spending proposals and underlying estimates of the Proposition 98 minimum guarantee.
Overview of the Governor’s Budget (Handout)
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January 26, 2022 - Presented to: Assembly Committee on Budget
Overview of the Governor’s Budget (Handout)
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January 19, 2022 - Presented to: Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Committee
The 2022-23 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget
January 13, 2022 - On January 10, 2022, Governor Newsom presented his proposed state budget to the Legislature. In this report, we provide a brief summary of the proposed budget based on our initial review. In the coming weeks, we will analyze the plan in more detail and release several additional budget analyses.
Update (1/21/22): Includes a corrected estimate of Governor’s Budget proposals that are excludable under the State Appropriations Limit (SAL).
The 2022-23 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook
November 17, 2021 - This post describes our fiscal outlook for Medi‑Cal, the major factors that we expect to drive changes in General Fund spending in Medi Cal, and a number of our key underlying assumptions. (Specifically, this post concerns projections of Medi‑Cal local assistance spending within the Department of Health Care Services [DHCS].)
The 2022-23 Budget: Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges
November 17, 2021 - Each year, the state calculates a “minimum guarantee” for school and community college funding based upon a set of formulas established by Proposition 98 (1988). Based upon revenue projections that are significantly above the June 2021 estimates, we estimate the guarantee in 2022‑23 is $11.6 billion (12.4 percent) above the 2021‑22 enacted budget level. After accounting for various adjustments—backing out one‑time expenditures, funding a 5.35 percent cost‑of‑living adjustment, and making required reserve deposits—we estimate that $9.5 billion is available for new commitments. In addition, we estimate that $10.2 billion in one‑time funding is available due to increases in the guarantee in 2020‑21 and 2021‑22. In total, we estimate nearly $20 billion is available to allocate in the upcoming budget cycle. To help the Legislature prepare to allocate this funding, we outline several options that would build upon existing programs, expand services in targeted ways, and address future costs and uncertainties.
The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook
November 17, 2021 - Our annual Fiscal Outlook publication gives our office’s independent assessment of the California state budget condition for the upcoming fiscal year and over the longer term. In this report, we anticipate the state will have a $31 billion surplus to allocate in the upcoming fiscal year and operating surpluses ranging from $3 billion to $8 billion over the multiyear period. We also find the state will need to allocate about $14 billion to meet the constitutional requirements of the State Appropriation's Limit (SAL) across 2020-21 and 2021-22.
The 2021-22 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)
October 27, 2021 - Each year, our office publishes the California Spending Plan to summarize the annual state budget. This publication provides an overview of the 2021-22 Budget Act, then highlights major features of the budget approved by the Legislature and signed by the Governor.
Supplemental Report of the 2021-22 Budget Act
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September 28, 2021 - The Supplemental Report of the 2021-22 Budget Act contains statements of legislative intent that were adopted during deliberations on the 2021-22 budget package.
State Budget Condition Staff
- Ann Hollingshead
- (916) 319-8305
- State Budget and Federal Funding
- Carolyn Chu
- (916) 319-8326
- Chief Deputy Legislative Analyst