State Budget Condition Publications

To browse all LAO publications, visit our Publications page.


 




Report

The 2023-24 Budget: Considering Inflation's Effects on State Programs

November 16, 2022 - This brief takes a case study approach to examine how elevated inflation has already impacted—and could continue to impact—state spending programs.

Report

The 2023-24 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

November 16, 2022 - Our annual Fiscal Outlook publication gives our office’s independent assessment of the California state budget condition for the upcoming fiscal year and over the longer term. In this report, we anticipate the state will have a $24 billion budget problem to solve in the upcoming fiscal year and operating deficits declining from $17 billion to $8 billion over the multiyear period. The goal of this report is to help the Legislature begin crafting the 2023‑24 budget. Our analysis relies on specific assumptions about the future of the state economy, its revenues, and its expenditures. Consequently, our estimates are not definitive, but rather reflect our best guidance to the Legislature based on our professional assessments as of November 2022.

Update (11/22/22): The original version of this report identified a $25 billion—instead of a $24 billion—budget problem, which reflected an error in the way we accounted for student housing grant program funding.

Report

The 2022-23 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

October 12, 2022 - Each year, our office publishes the California Spending Plan to summarize the annual state budget. This publication provides an overview of the 2022-23 Budget Act, gives a brief description of how the budget process unfolded, and then highlights major features of the budget approved by the Legislature and signed by the Governor.

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The 2022-23 California Spending Plan: The State Appropriations Limit

September 30, 2022 - This post describes the legislative and administrative decisions regarding the State Appropriations Limit (SAL) in the 2022‑23 budget process.

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The 2022-23 Budget: California Spending Plan Series

September 29, 2022 - Each year, our office publishes California Spending Plan, a series of publications that summarize the annual state budget. The Overview of the California Spending Plan is presented here along with short online posts that focus on major areas and features of the 2022-23 budget package. As more of these posts become available, we will add them below.

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Supplemental Report of the 2022-23 Budget Act

September 27, 2022 - The Supplemental Report of the 2022-23 Budget Act contains statements of legislative intent and requests for studies that were adopted by the Legislature during deliberations on the 2022-23 budget package.

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The 2022-23 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions

September 27, 2022 - This post discusses features of the state's spending plan that were not covered elsewhere in the 2022-23 Spending Plan series.

Handout

Budget Reserves

August 3, 2022 - Presented to: Assembly Budget Subcommittee No. 6 on Process, Oversight and Program Evaluation

Handout

Overview of Legislature’s Budget Package

June 13, 2022 - Presented to: Assembly Committee on Budget

Handout

Overview of Legislature’s Budget Package

June 9, 2022 - Senate Committee on Budget and Fiscal Review

Report

The 2022-23 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2022 - This brief presents our office’s independent assessment of the condition of the state General Fund budget through 2025-26 under our forecast of revenues and spending, assuming the Governor’s May Revision policies were adopted.

Report

The 2022-23 May Revision: LAO Analyses

May 16, 2022 - As our office publishes responses to the Governor's 2022-23 May Revision, we will add them to this index page.

Report

The 2022-23 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 16, 2022 - On May 13, 2022, Governor Newsom presented a revised state budget proposal to the Legislature. (This annual proposed revised budget is called the “May Revision.”) In this brief, we provide a summary of the Governor's revised budget, focusing on the overall condition and structure of the state General Fund—the budget's main operating account. In the coming days, we will analyze the plan in more detail and provide additional comments in hearing testimony and online. The information presented in this brief is based on our best understanding of the administration's proposals as of 11:00 AM, May 14, 2022. In many areas of the budget, this understanding will continue to evolve as we receive more information. We only plan to update this brief for very significant changes (that is, those greater than $500 million).

Update (5/20/22): Updated to reflect information about state appropriations limit (SAL) excluded spending and other budget proposals.

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Strong Tax Collections Belie California's Challenging Fiscal Outlook

April 26, 2022 - Given the persistent strength in state tax collections, it may come as a surprise that California’s General Fund likely faces a budget problem in the coming years. Yet this is the key takeaway from a recent fiscal analysis of 10,000 possible revenue scenarios conducted by our office. In 95 percent of our simulations, the state encountered a budget problem by 2025-26. Notably, the likelihood of a budget problem largely is impervious to the future trajectory of state tax revenues. That is, whether revenues trend upward or downward from here, the state likely faces budget deficits. The central implication of our findings is stark and suggests that in the interest of fiscal resilience, the Legislature should consider rejecting a substantial portion of the Governor’s January spending proposals.

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The 2022-23 Budget: State Appropriations Limit Implications

March 30, 2022 - This brief estimates the condition of the budget over the multiyear taking state appropriations limit requirements into consideration.

State Budget Condition Staff

Ann Hollingshead
(916) 319-8305
State Budget and Federal Funding
 
Carolyn Chu
(916) 319-8326
Chief Deputy Legislative Analyst