August 2021 State Tax Collections September 20, 2021

Through the first two months of the 2021-22 fiscal year, collections from the state’s three largest taxes are running 20 percent ($3.6 billion) ahead of budget projections. 


U.S. Retail Sales Update: August 2021 September 17, 2021

U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) grew 0.7 percent from July to August. Retail sales remain elevated due to dramatic growth in January and March. 


U.S. Retail Sales Update: July 2021 August 17, 2021

U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) fell 1.1 percent from June to July. Retail sales remain elevated due to dramatic growth in January and March. 


U.S. Retail Sales Update: June 2021 July 16, 2021

U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) grew 0.6 percent from May to June. Retail sales remain elevated due to dramatic growth in January and March.


U.S. Retail Sales Update: May 2021 June 15, 2021

U.S. retail sales dropped by 1.3% from April to May (seasonally adjusted), but sales remain elevated, with 14% growth over the last 6 months.


The 2021-22 Budget: May Revenue Outlook May 17, 2021

This post provides commentary on our May Outlook revenues.


March 2021 State Tax Collections April 28, 2021

March collections from the state’s three largest taxes—the personal income tax, corporation tax, and sales tax—exceeded projections by $2.5 billion (30 percent).


U.S. Retail Sales Update: March 2021 April 15, 2021

March retail sales were nearly 10 percent above February and 28 percent above March 2020. 


February 2021 State Tax Collections March 22, 2021

February gross revenue collections from the state’s three largest taxes were ahead of budget projections by $1.6 billion (14 percent).


U.S. Retail Sales Update: February 2021 March 16, 2021

 Despite a decline of 3 percent from January, February retail sales were 6.5 percent above February 2020. 


U.S. Retail Sales Update: January 2021 February 17, 2021

U.S. retail sales grew 5.3% from December to January (seasonally adjusted)—the 4th-largest monthly increase since 1992.


Card Spending Update: January 2021 February 12, 2021

Credit/debit card data suggest CA taxable sales grew by 2% in January but the spending response to recent federal stimulus payments seemed to be weaker in CA than elsewhere. 


January 2021 State Tax Collections February 12, 2021

Revenue collections through January have been well ahead of projections in the recently released 2021-22 Governor’s Budget. After accounting for changes in constitutionally-required spending, we estimate that these higher-than-expected collections represent a roughly $4 billion increase in discretionary state funding relative to the Governor’s Budget.


December 2020 State Tax Collections January 20, 2021

December revenue collections from the state’s three largest taxes were ahead of Governor’s Budget projections by $3.0 billion (21 percent).


U.S. Retail Sales Update: December 2020 January 15, 2021

U.S. retail sales declined by 0.7% from November to December, but sales for the full year were 0.4% higher than 2019.