Updated 2022-23 "Big Three" Revenue Outlook January 13, 2023

Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently estimate that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes—personal income, sales, and corporation taxes—are likely to fall below the Governor's Budget assumption of $200 billion in 2022-23. 


Income Tax Withholding Tracker January 9, 2023

December PIT withholding came in $1.8 billion (about 13 percent) lower than last year. For the fiscal year so far, withholding is running 6.7 percent lower than last year, with all of the weakness coming since the last week of August.


November 2022 Cap-and-Trade Auction Update December 14, 2022

Based on the preliminary results, the state will receive an estimated $961 million in revenue from the most recent quarterly cap-and-trade auction held on November 16, 2022. 


October Tax Collections November 17, 2022

Although October colletions from the state's “big three” tax revenues—personal income, corporation, and sales taxes—came in far ahead of Budget Act assumptions, this is not indicative of better than expected revenue performance for 2022-23 overall. Instead, a closer look at the data shows that the recent trend of revenue weakness continued in October. 


Income Tax Witholding Tracker: August 2022 September 1, 2022

August state income tax withholding was down $450 million (6.1 percent) compared to last year. 


Cannabis Tax Revenue Update August 22, 2022

Cannabis tax revenues have declined substantially for three straight quarters. 


Income Tax Witholding Tracker: July 2022 August 5, 2022

California income tax withholding collections were $90 million (1 percent) lower in July compared to last year.


Income Tax Withholding Tracker: June 2022 July 11, 2022

California income tax collections were down 2 percent in June relative to last year. 


Cannabis Tax Revenue Update May 26, 2022

Preliminary cannabis tax revenue for 3rd quarter of 2021-22: $189 million.



2021-22 “Big Three” Revenue Outlook Update: April 20, 2022 April 21, 2022

Our estimates suggest that it is virtually certain that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes—personal income, sales, and corporation taxes—will significantly exceed the Governor’s Budget assumption of $185 billion in 2021-22. Currently, our best estimate is that there will be somewhere between $33 billion and $39 billion in unanticipated revenue.


2021-22 “Big Three” Revenue Outlook Update: March 2022 March 28, 2022

Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a very good chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the Governor's Budget assumption of $185 billion in 2021-22 by at least several billion dollars. 


Cannabis Tax Revenue Update February 23, 2022

Preliminary cannabis tax revenue for 2nd quarter of 2021-22: $196 million. Over the past year, cannabis tax revenue has grown much more slowly than it did previously.


2021-22 “Big Three” Revenue Outlook Update: February 2022 February 17, 2022

Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a very good chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the Governor's Budget assumption of $185 billion in 2021-22 by at least several billion dollars. 


2021-22 “Big Three” Revenue Outlook Update: January 2022 January 21, 2022

Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a strong chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the Governor's Budget assumption of $185 billion in 2021-22.