Updated "Big Three" Revenue Outlook

This update post reruns our May Outlook revenue forecasting models using newer revenue and economic data that has become available in recent months. We then compare the new estimates to projections in the 2024-25 Budget Act. These updated estimates are for the state’s “big three” revenues only. They do not reflect an update of the projected budget deficit. 

Updated Forecast In Line With Budget Assumptions. Our updated forecast is basically equivalent to Budget Act revenue assumptions. That being said, we are only one month into the new fiscal year and it is virtually certain the revenue outlook will change in the coming months. Ultimately, it would not be surprising if revenues ended up $20 billion higher or lower than our estimate for 2024-25 and $35 billion higher or lower for 2025-26.