Monthly Jobs Report January 25, 2023

California businesses added 16,000 jobs in December, following a relatively sluggish November (+20k jobs). Though businesses continue to hire, recent reports send mixed signals. From July to December, businesses reported adding 230k jobs. At the same time, 100k fewer Californians reported having work. 


Updated Inflation Outlook January 22, 2023

Based on the most recent economic data, we now estimate that annual inflation will drop to about 4 percent by the second quarter of 2023.


U.S. Retail Sales Update: December 2022 January 18, 2023

U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) declined 1.1 percent from November to December. The two-month decline was 2.1 percent. In the last 30 years, two-month drops of at least 2 percent have happened around recessions. 


Updated 2022-23 "Big Three" Revenue Outlook January 13, 2023

Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently estimate that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes—personal income, sales, and corporation taxes—are likely to fall below the Governor's Budget assumption of $200 billion in 2022-23. 


Inflation Tracker January 12, 2023

Significant increase in inflation over the last couple of years, but recent data are showing declines.


U.S. Retail Sales Update: November 2022 December 15, 2022

U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) declined 0.6 percent from October to November. 


Unemployment Claims Tracker December 9, 2022

Despite worrying signs in some parts of the economy, the labor market remains steady. Seasonally adjusted weekly UI claims held steady over the last several months at between 40,000 and 50,000 claims per week. This level is in-line with UI claims seen during periods of sustained economic growth.


U.S. Retail Sales Update: October 2022 November 16, 2022

U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) grew 1.3 percent from September to October. 


U.S. Retail Sales Update: August 2022 September 15, 2022

U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) grew 0.3% from July to August. 


July 2022 Jobs Report August 22, 2022

California added 84,800 jobs in July, about twice the level of recent months. Job gains for June were revised upward as well, from 19k to 37k.


Income Tax Witholding Tracker: July 2022 August 5, 2022

California income tax withholding collections were $90 million (1 percent) lower in July compared to last year.


June 2022 Jobs Report July 25, 2022

California businesses added 19,900 jobs in June, about half as much as recent months and the slowest gain since last September.


U.S. Retail Sales Update: June 2022 July 18, 2022

The amount of money spent on retail purchases in the U.S. increased 1% from May to June, but real sales declined due to inflation.


Income Tax Withholding Tracker: June 2022 July 11, 2022

California income tax collections were down 2 percent in June relative to last year. 


U.S. Retail Sales Update: May 2022 June 15, 2022

U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) declined 0.3 percent from April to May. Inflation-adjusted sales declined more.