California businesses added 67,000 jobs in April, an above average pace after a sluggish start to the year. Despite employment gains, the state's unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.5 percent because more workers re-entered the labor force.
U.S. retail sales have dropped 0.9 percent over the last 3 months and grown 1.6 percent over the last 12 months.
Annual inflation is below the 2022 peak, but core measures have leveled off in recent months.
U.S. retail sales have grown 1.9 percent over the last 3 months and 2.9 percent over the last 12 months. Sales have grown faster than inflation over the last 3 months but slower than inflation over the last 12.
Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently estimate that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes—personal income, sales, and corporation taxes—are likely to fall below the Governor's Budget assumption of $200 billion in 2022-23.
U.S. retail sales have grown 2 percent over the last 3 months and 5.4 percent over the last 12 months.
U.S. retail sales have grown 6.4 percent over the last 12 months, but have been flat after accounting for inflation.
Based on the most recent economic data, we now estimate that annual inflation will drop to about 4 percent by the second quarter of 2023.
U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) declined 1.1 percent from November to December. The two-month decline was 2.1 percent. In the last 30 years, two-month drops of at least 2 percent have happened around recessions.
U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) declined 0.6 percent from October to November.
Despite worrying signs in some parts of the economy, the labor market remains steady. Seasonally adjusted weekly UI claims held steady over the last several months at between 40,000 and 50,000 claims per week. This level is in-line with UI claims seen during periods of sustained economic growth.
U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) grew 1.3 percent from September to October.
U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) grew 0.3% from July to August.
California added 84,800 jobs in July, about twice the level of recent months. Job gains for June were revised upward as well, from 19k to 37k.
California income tax withholding collections were $90 million (1 percent) lower in July compared to last year.