California businesses added 16,000 jobs in December, following a relatively sluggish November (+20k jobs). Though businesses continue to hire, recent reports send mixed signals. From July to December, businesses reported adding 230k jobs. At the same time, 100k fewer Californians reported having work.
Based on the most recent economic data, we now estimate that annual inflation will drop to about 4 percent by the second quarter of 2023.
U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) declined 1.1 percent from November to December. The two-month decline was 2.1 percent. In the last 30 years, two-month drops of at least 2 percent have happened around recessions.
Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently estimate that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes—personal income, sales, and corporation taxes—are likely to fall below the Governor's Budget assumption of $200 billion in 2022-23.
Significant increase in inflation over the last couple of years, but recent data are showing declines.
U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) declined 0.6 percent from October to November.
Despite worrying signs in some parts of the economy, the labor market remains steady. Seasonally adjusted weekly UI claims held steady over the last several months at between 40,000 and 50,000 claims per week. This level is in-line with UI claims seen during periods of sustained economic growth.
U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) grew 1.3 percent from September to October.
U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) grew 0.3% from July to August.
California added 84,800 jobs in July, about twice the level of recent months. Job gains for June were revised upward as well, from 19k to 37k.
California income tax withholding collections were $90 million (1 percent) lower in July compared to last year.
California businesses added 19,900 jobs in June, about half as much as recent months and the slowest gain since last September.
The amount of money spent on retail purchases in the U.S. increased 1% from May to June, but real sales declined due to inflation.
California income tax collections were down 2 percent in June relative to last year.
U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted) declined 0.3 percent from April to May. Inflation-adjusted sales declined more.