2021-22 “Big Three” Revenue Outlook Update: September 2021 September 20, 2021

Based on the most recent revenue and economic data, we currently project that there is a strong chance that collections from the state’s “big three” taxes will exceed the budget act assumption of $170 billion in 2021-22. 


A New Method For Current Year Revenue Forecasting September 20, 2021

We discuss our new model which provides a monthly update of our forecast of current year collections from the state’s “big three” taxes. 


The 2021-22 Budget: May Revenue Outlook May 17, 2021

This post provides commentary on our May Outlook revenues.


2020-21 Fiscal Outlook: Recent Job Losses Concentrated Among Childless Workers, Dampening Caseload Growth December 8, 2020

In this post, we look at one unforeseen labor market shift that has important implications for the state’s fiscal picture: compared to past recessions, a larger share of workers who have lost jobs during the pandemic do not have children. 


2021-22 Fiscal Outlook Economic Assumptions November 18, 2020

We discuss the economic assumptions underlying the main forecat in our 2021-22 Fiscal Outlook.


State Fiscal Health Index: December 2019 February 5, 2020

An update of our index which tracks the strength of economic conditions relevant to the state’s fiscal health.


State Fiscal Health Index: November 2019 January 9, 2020

An update of our index which tracks the strength of economic conditions relevant to the state’s fiscal health.


State Fiscal Health Index: October 2019 December 17, 2019

An update of our index which tracks the strength of economic conditions relevant to the state’s fiscal health.


Fiscal Outlook: Key Economic Assumptions November 20, 2019

We show the key economic assumptions underlying our new Fiscal Outlook for California. 


State Fiscal Health Index: September 2019 November 4, 2019

An update of our index which tracks the strength of economic conditions relevant to the state’s fiscal health.


State Fiscal Health Index: August 2019 October 11, 2019

An update of our index which tracks the strength of economic conditions relevant to the state’s fiscal health.


State Fiscal Health Index: July 2019 September 10, 2019

An update of our index which tracks the strength of economic conditions relevant to the state’s fiscal health.


State Fiscal Health Index: June 2019 August 7, 2019

An update of our index which tracks the strength of economic conditions relevant to the state’s fiscal health.


Unemployment Claims Update: June 2019 July 19, 2019

A brief look at unemployment claims data for June 2019.


State Fiscal Health Index: May 2019 July 2, 2019

An update of our index which tracks the strength of economic conditions relevant to the state’s fiscal health.