California businesses reported a decline of 5,500 jobs in October. The state's unemployment rate went up from 5.3 percent to 5.4 percent, it's highest level since the pandemic period. The state's labor market seems to have weakened a bit recently after showing some signs of stabilizing earlier this year, with softer monthly jobs gains and once-again expanding tally of unemployed workers as the most worrisome signs.
The state's modest job growth over the past two years is a tale of two labor markets. Hiring in public and publicly supported sectors has bouyed job losses in many of the state's high-paying private sectors. While job losses have hit California, nationally these private-sector industries are faring much better.
A newly released "early benchmark" of the official state jobs figures shows that payroll jobs declined by 32,000 from September 2023 through December 2023, whereas the official state tally showed growth of 117,000 jobs over that period. With the fourth quarter early revision, calendar year 2023 shows essentially no net job gains.
Each year, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revises the state's jobs number to match actual payroll records from businesses. The latest revision lowered its count of California jobs by 1.5 percent. The corrected data show that the state added just 50,000 jobs between September 2022 and September 2023, while preliminary monthly reports had showed the labor market growing by more than 300,000 jobs.
The administration's most recent Unemployment Insurance (UI) Trust Fund forecast shows that UI benefit payments will exceed state payroll tax receipts by $1.7 billion in 2024, after surpassing receipts by $1.3 billion in 2023. As a result, the state's outstanding UI loan from the federal government is set to increase over the next two years, despite automatic employer payroll tax increases to repay the loan.
October and November holiday season retail job growth remained relatively weak for the second year in a row. One plausible explanation for this weakness might be the continued transition to online holiday shopping, but transportation and warehousing jobs (where goods and packaged and delivered) has also been sluggish this holiday season.
California added 84,800 jobs in July, about twice the level of recent months. Job gains for June were revised upward as well, from 19k to 37k.
California businesses added 19,900 jobs in June, about half as much as recent months and the slowest gain since last September.
California businesses added 42,900 net jobs in May (seasonally adjusted), about the same as April and another month of slower job growth than seen in the past year.
California employers added 41,400 net jobs in April (seasonally adjusted), the smallest net gain in the past six months.
California employers added 60,200 jobs net jobs March (seasonally-adjusted), a 4.2 percent increase on an annual basis.
California employers added 50,700 net jobs in December, representing annualized growth of 3.6 percent.
California employers added 96,800 net jobs in October, the highest monthly figure since July.
California employers added an estimated net 47,400 jobs in September, the smallest monthly gain since January.
California employers added 104,300 net new jobs in August, a strong showing despite the national slowdown.