May 2017

Proposition 98 Overview

Proposition 98 Multiyear Forecast Under Governor's May Revision

(Dollars in Millions)

  2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
Minimum Guarantee          
General Fund $50,602 $52,852 $53,406 $54,450 $55,681
Local property tax 20,787 21,749 22,883 24,074 25,262
   Total $71,390 $74,601 $76,288 $78,524 $80,942
         
Change in General Fund From Prior Year         
Amount  $1,178 $2,249 $554 $1,044 $1,231
Percent change 2.4%  4.4% 1.0% 2.0% 2.3%
Change in Local Property Tax From Prior Year      
Amount  $1,108 $962 $1,134 $1,191 $1,188
Percent change  5.6% 4.6% 5.2% 5.2% 4.9%
Change in Guarantee From Prior Year         
Amount  $2,287 $3,211 $1,688 $2,235 $2,419
Percent change  3.3% 4.5%  2.3% 2.9% 3.1%
           
Inputs          
General Fund taxesa $121,105 $127,829 $131,598 $135,948 $140,636
K-12 average daily attendance 5,962,962 5,960,101 5,942,039 5,942,011 5,931,685
State civilian population 39,367,492 39,707,240 40,048,408 40,391,860 40,734,652
Growth Factors          
Per capita personal income 5.4% 3.7% 3.3% 3.5% 3.2%
Per capita General Fundb 2.8% 5.2% 2.6% 2.9% 3.1%
K-12 average daily attendance -0.2% -0.1% -0.3% 0.0% -0.2%
State civilian population 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8%
K-14 cost-of-living adjustment 0.0% 1.6% 2.2% 2.4% 2.6%
Outcomes          
Proposition 98 operative "test" 3 2 3 3 3
Maintenance factor:          
   Amount created/paid (+/-) $1,315 -$614 $543 $442 $110
   Amount outstanding 1,386 823 1,390 1,882 2,052
PSSSA deposit? No No No No No
           
a Reflects General Fund revenue that affects the calculation of the minimum guarantee.    
b Reflects per capita General Fund plus 0.5 percent (one of the Test 3 factors).     
PSSSA = Public School System Stabilization Account.