California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - Despite our view that there is a strong possibility of a market downturn, however, our revenue forecast does not assume one will occur. Rather, we ’ve incorporated the elevated risk of a downturn into our estimates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

The 2026-27 Budget: Bureau for Private Postsecondary Education

Mar 25, 2026 - The 2022-23 budget then provided BPPE with $24  million one-time General Fund over three years to repay this loan and cover its operational costs while BPPE developed a proposal for a new fee structure.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5169

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

The 2026-27 Budget: California Education Learning Lab

Mar 25, 2026 - For example, faculty from one UC campus and one CSU campus may be awarded a Learning Lab grant to improve calculus pass rates by making the curriculum more engaging for students. No avenue is in place, however, to scale these efforts.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5171

The 2026-27 Budget: Child Welfare

Mar 3, 2026 - Family First Prevention Services State Block Grant $222.4 million one ‑time in 2021 ‑22, available through June 30, 2028. Complex Care Needs: $18.1 million ongoing beginning in 2021 ‑22. County Capacity Building $43.2 million one ‑time in 2021 ‑22, available through June 30, 2026.
https://lao.ca.gov/publications/report/5147

The 2026-27 Budget: Computer Science Supplementary Authorization

Mar 6, 2026 - In addition, the Governor proposes to reduce the match requirement for districts to one-third of grant funding ($2,000 per grantee, compared with $2,500 per grantee under current law). No additional funding is proposed for the program .
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5153

The 2026-27 Budget: Re-Envisioning State Education Governance

Mar 18, 2026 - The SBE consists of ten  members, serving staggered four ‑year terms, and one student member, serving a one ‑year term. The Governor appoints all 11 members with the approval of two ‑thirds of the State Senate.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5165

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements The 2026-27 Budget How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements Recent stock market performance continues to boost income tax collections. In our Fiscal Outlook , we strongly advised the Legislature to treat near-term strength in tax collections as temporary because we expect these gains to reverse.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133