California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The current discrepancy over the size of the state ’s budget deficit —$18  billion under the Legislative Analyst ’s Office estimate versus $3  billion in the Governor ’s budget —fits squarely within that pattern.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

Realignment and County Indigent Health Care Programs [Publication Details]

Mar 19, 2026 - Presented to: Senate Budget Subcommittee No. 3 on Health and Human Services
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5164

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - For example, we recommend the Legislature: Do Not Suspend the $3  Billion True Up Into the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). The Governor ’s budget proposes suspending a roughly $3  billion true-up deposit that otherwise would be required in 2025-26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

The 2026-27 Budget: In-Home Supportive Services

Mar 18, 2026 - As seen in Figure  3 , IHSS caseload has grown significantly since 2013. Despite slower caseload growth between 2016 ‑17 and 2020 ‑21 (the caseload continued to grow during this period, just at a slower than usual rate).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5166

The 2026-27 Budget: Contract to Achieve Operational Efficiencies

Mar 10, 2026 - DOF notified JLBC on October 3, 2025 that it had entered a contract in an amount up to $20  million with Boston Consulting Group (BCG) on September 26, 2025 for the purpose of assisting and advising DOF on analyzing and creating process improvements within state government.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5156

The 2026-27 Budget: Department of Developmental Services

Mar 13, 2026 - Chapter  4 of 2016 (S B  3 , Leno) has gradually increased California ’s statewide minimum wage from $8 per hour to $16 per hour. Under S B  3 , the statewide minimum wage will continue to increase by up to 3.5  percent each year, depending on inflation.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5157

The 2026-27 Budget: Cap-and-Invest Expenditure Plan

Feb 10, 2026 - In 2026 ‑27, for example, under this approach roughly $1.75  billion is available for discretionary purposes prior to funding Tier 3 programs, of which the administration proposes to spend about $1.6  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5114