California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - Whereas California’s labor market has stagnated over the last two years, the S&P 500 stock index has appreciated roughly 50 percent over the same period. And most of this increase has come from skyrocketing share prices among a handful of firms associated with innovations in Artificial Intelligence (AI).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

California State University Capital Outlay Projects [EdBudget]

Mar 26, 2026 - Annual debt service costs, which CSU will pay using its General Fund support, is estimated to be $50 million. b The campus is anticipated to contribute $12 million for this project. This includes $10 million in donor support and $2 million in campus reserves. c The campus is anticipated to contribute $9.6 million in campus reserves for this project.
https://lao.ca.gov/Education/EdBudget/Details/1082

The 2026-27 Budget: Community College Facilities

Mar 17, 2026 - The Chancellor ’s Office may designate up to 50  percent of state funding each year for life safety projects, though the amount needed to fund all project proposals in this category is typically much lower.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5159

The 2026-27 Budget: Streamlining California’s Affordable Housing Funding System

Mar 6, 2026 - In years of leaner supplies of state subsidies, however, demand for the set ‑aside pool will be much less and a mandatory 50  percent set ‑aside for HDFC projects could be too high. This prospect becomes even more likely due to the up ‑to ‑doubling of the availability of federal 4  percent tax credits resulting from H.R. 1.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5154

Middle Class Scholarship Program [EdBudget]

Feb 3, 2026 - Projections for 2026-27 assume a 5 percent increase in recipients and, as proposed by the administration, a 50 percent decrease in award coverage (from 35 percent award coverage in 2025-26 to 17.5 percent coverage in 2026-27).
https://lao.ca.gov/Education/EdBudget/Details/1056

The 2026-27 Budget: Child Welfare

Mar 3, 2026 - Flexible Family Supports and Home ‑Based Foster Care Funding Program $50 million one ‑time in 2022 ‑23 and again in 2023 ‑24, expendable for three years (through June 30, 2026 for the later allocation).
https://lao.ca.gov/publications/report/5147

K-12 Proposition 98 Funding by Program [EdBudget]

Jan 19, 2026 - Includes $50 million each year for Quality Rating and Improvement System. c Includes $150 million in one-time funds provided in the June 2025 budget. d June 2025 budget also provided $2 million in unspent prior-year funds to support the California School for the Deaf in Fremont. e Less than $500,000. f June 2024 budget also provided $4.3 million in unspent prior-year funds to
https://lao.ca.gov/Education/EdBudget/Details/1069