The 2026-27 Budget: In-Home Supportive Services

Mar 18, 2026 - This is particularly important for the IHSS hours shift proposal, as the mechanics of how this will work remains unclear to us at this time. In  particular, we note that the proposal to shift IHSS hours growth costs to counties does not assume savings until 2027 ‑28.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5166

The 2026-27 Budget: Contract to Achieve Operational Efficiencies

Mar 10, 2026 - We discuss our understanding of additional information that the administration shared with us in late February 2026 in the bullet points below. Given the work is ongoing, it is possible that some of this information is now out of date.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5156

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

The 2026-27 Budget: Office of Emergency Services Next Generation 911 System

Feb 27, 2026 - Although the underlying technologies that enabled the legacy 911 system stayed (relatively) constant for a period, the advent and diffusion of IP ‑based technologies invite a more dynamic view. In other words, at least theoretically, an IP ‑enabled 911 system has the technological capacity to incorporate new and innovative features, applications, data, software, and hardware.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5145

The 2026-27 Budget: Governor’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel Tax Credit Proposal

Feb 24, 2026 - However, given the existing ample availability of other, likely more cost ‑effective GHG ‑reduction programs and policies, such a costly focus on the aviation sector is not compelling to us at this time.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5139

The 2026-27 Budget: CDTFA’s Cannabis and Tobacco Programs

Feb 23, 2026 - The administration tells us that this spending came from CDTFA ’s General Fund appropriation in the budget act. Department ‑Level Perspective. The administration appears to have approached this issue by trying to “work within CDTFA ’s budget. ” Viewed through this department ‑level lens, one could argue that spending General Fund on the Cannabis Tax Program makes sense.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5132

The 2026-27 Budget: Proposition 4 Spending Plan

Feb 10, 2026 - While none of the administration ’s proposed activities raised specific concerns for us through our review, approving or modifying these proposals represents the Legislature ’s opportunity to confirm and express its intent and priorities —which could differ from what the Governor is proposing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5115

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033