The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements [Publication Details]

Feb 20, 2026 - Recent stock market performance continues to boost income tax collections. In our Fiscal Outlook, we strongly advised the Legislature to treat near-term strength in tax collections as temporary because we expect these gains to reverse. Further, the state faces significant structural deficits in the future.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5133

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements The 2026-27 Budget How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements Recent stock market performance continues to boost income tax collections. In our Fiscal Outlook , we strongly advised the Legislature to treat near-term strength in tax collections as temporary because we expect these gains to reverse.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

The 2026-27 Budget: Higher Education Overview

Feb 5, 2026 - New Higher Education Spending Is at Risk Given Stock Market Signals. The administration ’s higher revenue estimates are mainly driven by strong stock market performance. Certain factors signal the stock market might be approaching a peak.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5112

The 2026-27 Budget: Proposition 98 Guarantee and K-12 Spending Plan

Feb 4, 2026 - Investors are borrowing large sums to buy stocks, and households are more invested in the stock market than at any time in at least 70 years. Historically, these signs have preceded stock market downturns.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5110

The 2026-27 Budget: Proposed Zero-Emission Vehicle Incentive

Feb 24, 2026 - State Still Has Various Existing Programs to Encourage ZEV Adoption. Despite the loss of federal funds, the state still supports various programs to subsidize the purchase of ZEVs. For example, in recent years, the state has supported the Driving Clean Assistance and regional Clean Cars 4 All (CC4All) programs through periodic budget appropriations.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5140

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog] How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? March 9, 2026 Chas Alamo State Budget Is Heavily Reliant on Stock Market Earnings.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog] How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? March 9, 2026 Chas Alamo State Budget Is Heavily Reliant on Stock Market Earnings.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - While the Governor ’s budget describes the financial markets as a leading risk to the budget and assumes that stock market appreciation slows, it does not explicitly factor the risk of a market downturn into its revenue estimates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: Framework for Approaching the Natural Resources, Environmental Protection, and Agriculture Budget

Feb 10, 2026 - Stock Market Poses Serious Risk to Revenues. While the administration acknowledges the risk of a market downturn, it stops short of incorporating the possibility of one into its revenue estimates. Several historically reliable signs suggest the market is overheated and at a high risk of reversing course in the next year or so.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5116

Addressing Chronic Vacancies in Prison Mental Health Care

Feb 23, 2026 - However, smaller pay increases, such as cost ‑of ‑living increases, or increases targeted at specific geographic regions, or providers working in specific settings, may still be appropriate in the near term.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5134