California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - Whereas California’s labor market has stagnated over the last two years, the S&P 500 stock index has appreciated roughly 50 percent over the same period. And most of this increase has come from skyrocketing share prices among a handful of firms associated with innovations in Artificial Intelligence (AI).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

Firearms and Ammunition Revenue Update (2025 Q2) [EconTax Blog]

Aug 18, 2025 - Preliminary Total for 2024-25: $58 Million. For firearm and ammunition excise tax returns filed for 2024-25, the total amount of tax due is $58 million —a bit lower than the budget package revenue assumption.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/836

Firearms and Ammunition Revenue Update (2025 Q3) [EconTax Blog]

Nov 18, 2025 - Current tax return data suggest that the total will be around $58 million. Preliminary Total for Third Quarter of 2025: $13 Million. For firearm and ammunition excise tax returns filed for the third quarter of 2025, the total amount of tax due is $13 million —slightly below the quarterly average in the first year of the program.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/842

Firearms and Ammunition Revenue Update (2025 Q3) [EconTax Blog]

Nov 18, 2025 - Current tax return data suggest that the total will be around $58 million. Preliminary Total for Third Quarter of 2025: $13 Million. For firearm and ammunition excise tax returns filed for the third quarter of 2025, the total amount of tax due is $13 million —slightly below the quarterly average in the first year of the program.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/842

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - The stock market (S &P 500) has risen 50  percent in the last two years. Most of these gains come from the meteoric rise in the value of a handful of tech companies that investors believe will be major beneficiaries of recent advances in AI.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2023-24 Budget: May Revenue Outlook [EconTax Blog]

May 13, 2023 - As shown on the figure, by the end of our forecast in 2026-27, it is entirely plausible that revenues could end up $50 billion above or below our forecast. How Much Have Tax Filing Delays Impacted Our Forecast?
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/774

2025-26 Changes in Proposition 98 Spending [EdBudget]

Feb 4, 2025 - 2025-26 Changes in Proposition 98 Spending [EdBudget] 2025-26 Proposition 98 Spending $118,923 a Applies to Child and Adult Care Food Program, K-12 Mandates Block Grant, and special education. b Reflects additional LCFF costs associated with serving more students in transitional kindergarten, including costs of existing 12:1 staffing ratios. c The Governor's budget also includes $229 million in
https://lao.ca.gov/Education/EdBudget/Details/939