How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - Revenues regained their nominal levels in 55 months after the dot-com bubble, 53 months following the global financial crisis, and 40 months after the 2022 rate hike drawdown. Multi-year revenue declines amplify the strain on the state budget during major market downturns.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - Revenues regained their nominal levels in 55 months after the dot-com bubble, 53 months following the global financial crisis, and 40 months after the 2022 rate hike drawdown. Multi-year revenue declines amplify the strain on the state budget during major market downturns.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Firearms and Ammunition Revenue Update (2025 Q2) [EconTax Blog]

Aug 18, 2025 - Preliminary Total for 2024-25: $58 Million. For firearm and ammunition excise tax returns filed for 2024-25, the total amount of tax due is $58 million —a bit lower than the budget package revenue assumption.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/836

The 2025-26 Budget: Food Assistance Programs

Feb 19, 2025 - The shift from a mix of state and federal funds in 2024-25 to all General Fund in 2025-26 is largely due to the end of a federal policy allowing states to temporarily replace stolen SNAP benefits using federal funds from October 1, 2022 to December 31, 2024 (California has therefore returned to replacing any stolen benefits with state funds, as was its practice before October 2022).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4971

Firearms and Ammunition Revenue Update (2025 Q3) [EconTax Blog]

Nov 18, 2025 - Current tax return data suggest that the total will be around $58 million. Preliminary Total for Third Quarter of 2025: $13 Million. For firearm and ammunition excise tax returns filed for the third quarter of 2025, the total amount of tax due is $13 million —slightly below the quarterly average in the first year of the program.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/842

Firearms and Ammunition Revenue Update (2025 Q3) [EconTax Blog]

Nov 18, 2025 - Current tax return data suggest that the total will be around $58 million. Preliminary Total for Third Quarter of 2025: $13 Million. For firearm and ammunition excise tax returns filed for the third quarter of 2025, the total amount of tax due is $13 million —slightly below the quarterly average in the first year of the program.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/842

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

The 2024-25 Budget: Deficit Update

Feb 20, 2024 - Specifically, our forecast is about $24 billion below the Governor’s budget across 2022‑23 to 2024‑25. All else equal, this means the budget problem is likely to be higher at the time of the May Revision.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4850

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762