A New Method For Current Year Revenue Forecasting [EconTax Blog]

Sep 20, 2021 - We then repeated this process for every year durin g the period 1990-91  through 2021-22. The results of this analysis are summarized in the graphic below.   Up-To-Date Data Improves Forecast Accuracy.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/696

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

The 2021-22 Budget: Improving Legislative Oversight of Emergency Spending Authorities

Mar 2, 2021 - As discussed above, the Governor ’s budget proposes two new control sections —11 .92 and 11. 91 —that would provide the administration with significant flexibility in spending state, federal, and private funds on COVID ‑ 19 r esponse activities.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4393

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: The California State Payroll System IT Project

Mar 7, 2025 - At least 91 processing departments (and, for some processes, nearly all state departments) will need to onboard to CSPS, but there is currently no information about which processing departments will be included in each of the waves.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5011

The 2026-27 Budget: California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation

Feb 23, 2026 - We recommend the Legislature require CDCR to provide it with key information to inform its deliberations about whether the $91  million for separating employee leave cashout payments will be needed in 2029 ‑30 and ongoing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5137

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

Third Round of Federal Higher Education Relief Funding

May 3, 2021 - . $36  billion (91  percent) for base funds to public and private nonprofit institutions. $396  million (1  percent) for base funds to private for-profit institutions. $3  billion (7.5  percent) for supplemental funds to minority-serving institutions. $198  million (0.5  percent) for supplemental funds to institutions with the greatest unmet need, as determined by ED after making other funding allocations.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4421

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091