California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - The state solved a $27  billion deficit in 2023 ‑24, a $55  billion deficit in 2024 ‑25, and a $15  billion deficit in 2025 ‑26 (in addition to roughly $28  billion in proactive budget ‑balancing actions taken the year before).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - Although the state had surpluses that totaled over $100 billion across 2021‑22 and 2022‑23, Proposition 2 required only a about $10 billion to be saved over a similar period. Further, since 2023‑24, the Legislature has addressed $82 billion in budget problems (with more in deficits likely to emerge in the coming years), but at its largest, the BSA balance reached only $23 billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - In this section, we first present our estimates of the budget problem the Legislature addressed in the 2025 ‑26 budget package, focusing on the three ‑year budget window under consideration: 2023 ‑24 through 2025 ‑26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Sep 6, 2024 - The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan Update (9/11/24): Managed care organization tax increase corrected in Appendix 1 (Figure 4) and Appendix 2 (Figure 1). Update (10/2/24): Figure 8 has been updated for final actions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4922/3

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Sep 6, 2024 - The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan Update (9/11/24): Managed care organization tax increase corrected in Appendix 1 (Figure 4) and Appendix 2 (Figure 1). Update (10/2/24): Figure 8 has been updated for final actions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4922/2

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Sep 6, 2024 - The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan Update (9/11/24): Managed care organization tax increase corrected in Appendix 1 (Figure 4) and Appendix 2 (Figure 1). Update (10/2/24): Figure 8 has been updated for final actions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4922/1

The 2025-26 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2025 - Both our office and the Department of Finance (DOF) project operating deficits ranging from $10  billion to $20  billion over the multiyear period. These shortfalls represent future budget problems that would require additional budget-balancing decisions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5052