How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - With the concentration of stock market gains in technology companies, any event that shakes mar ket confidence, including things beyond waning enthusiasm about AI, could be detrimental to state revenues.    
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - With the concentration of stock market gains in technology companies, any event that shakes mar ket confidence, including things beyond waning enthusiasm about AI, could be detrimental to state revenues.    
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

California's Cooling Housing Market [EconTax Blog]

Aug 30, 2022 - Bay Area mar kets have been particularly impacted. Illustrative of the sudden decline in housing demand, home sales have declined significantly. As of mid-August, pending home sales in many major markets were down by around one-third compared to a year ago.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/749

October Tax Collections [EconTax Blog]

Nov 17, 2022 - However, only a small fraction ($2.1 billion) of the assumed refunds materialized in October, as it turns out the majority of taxpayers already had made timely claims of their credits bac k in April.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/761

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - This is about $5  billion larger than the budget problem anticipated by the administration in June. Figure  3 provides our estimates of the General Fund condition, including our estimate of the budget problem.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - Civil penalties on covered co mpanies may be assessed as a percentage of annual gross revenue, beginning at 5 percent for initial violations and increasing to as much as 100 percent for violations that remain u ncured over specified time periods.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

The 2023-24 Budget: May Revenue Outlook [EconTax Blog]

May 13, 2023 - In the last 30 years, comparable two-quarter declines have occurred only around the Dot-Com Recession and the Great Recession. Similarly, income tax withholding (the largest component of income tax collections) has declined 5 percent so far this year, a stark departure from the double digit growth of the preceding two years.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/774

The 2026-27 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - With so many moving pieces, and with the state ’s overall fiscal situation still heading in the wrong direction, the Legislature may need to continue considering its Medi ‑Cal priorities in the coming years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5092