How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - This dynamic may be especially notable today. The current run-up in stock prices is similarly concentrated in Silicon Valley technology companies, raising the risk of an outsized revenue loss if that market corrects sharply.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - This dynamic may be especially notable today. The current run-up in stock prices is similarly concentrated in Silicon Valley technology companies, raising the risk of an outsized revenue loss if that market corrects sharply.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

The 2023-24 Budget: May Revenue Outlook [EconTax Blog]

May 13, 2023 - For example, our weak revenue forecast over the next couple years largely is based on the historical observation that when economic conditions are similar to today there is a strong chance of a slowdown in the near future.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/774

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Personal income tax rates for high-income taxpayers. [Ballot]

Oct 20, 2025 - We estimate the measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Maintains $5  billion to $15  billion of annual state income taxes (in today ’s dollars) by making a tax on high income earners permanent instead of letting it expire in 2031.  
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-016

California labor law violations. [Ballot]

Nov 23, 2021 - On the other hand, trial courts could receive an increased number of appeals of Labor Com missioner decisions or an increased number of class-action lawsuits or other civil filings that otherwise would have been pursued as PAGA lawsuits.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2021-027

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

Five Guidelines for Using Revenue Forecasts [EconTax Blog]

Feb 20, 2025 - Over the last four decades, the budget act revenue forecast for the budget year has been off by $7 billion to $10 billion in a typical year (in today ’s dollars). Misses of $25 billion or more are not uncommon.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/822

Five Guidelines for Using Revenue Forecasts [EconTax Blog]

Feb 20, 2025 - Over the last four decades, the budget act revenue forecast for the budget year has been off by $7 billion to $10 billion in a typical year (in today ’s dollars). Misses of $25 billion or more are not uncommon.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/822