California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - Were the markets to drop considerably, budget problems would be tens of billions of dollars larger, necessitating even deeper cuts and/or tax increases. These challenges would not be short-lived either.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - However, our Fiscal Outlook revenue forecast, shown in Figure  2 , reflects a smaller, temporary upgrade which reverses beginning in 2026 ‑ 27 —resulting in 2026 ‑27 revenues being in line with budget act estimates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

California labor law violations. [Ballot]

Nov 23, 2021 - The measure likely would increase state costs for the Labor Commissioner as a result of: Increased Wage Claims. The measure likely would increase the number of wage claims received by the Labor Commissioner because some employees who would have been plaintiffs in PAGA lawsuits might instead file wage claims.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2021-027

Tribal gaming. [Ballot]

Dec 27, 2021 - This is because a federal court previously determined that the payments required by certain tribal-state com pacts into the state ’s General Fund for use at the state ’s discretion generally were an illegal tax prohibited under federal law.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2021-039

Elections in California. [Ballot]

Nov 3, 2025 - Fiscal Effects Likely Increased Elections Costs. Allowing citizen initiatives to appear on statewide primary ballots likely would increase state and local government elections costs because more initiatives likely would qualify f or statewide elections.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-019

The 2026-27 Budget: Community College Facilities

Mar 17, 2026 - Of the ten new projects included in the Governor ’s budget, seven are at campuses that already received Proposition  2 funding for a different project in 2025-26. While these campuses may have significant facility needs, they are likely also benefiting from certain other scoring metrics.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5159

Rideshare companies. [Ballot]

Dec 17, 2025 - The increased costs likely would range from the low tens of millions of dollars to the mid-tens of millions of dollars annually. The measure intends for these costs to be covered primarily through fees paid by rideshare companies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-029