LAO 2006-07 Budget Perspectives and Issues: Issue-By-Issue TOC Analysis of the 2006-07 Budget Bill
Perspectives and Issues Outline

Part I: State Fiscal Picture

The Budget Proposal

Budget’s Economic Forecast-Moderate Growth

Budget’s Revenue Forecast-Up Substantially

Budget Overview

General Fund Condition

Key Features of the Budget Proposal

LAO Outlook

2006-07 Budget Would Have a $2.6 Billion Reserve

State Would Continue to Face Structural Shortfalls Thereafter

Projections Subject to Significant Risks

Financial Obligations Are Looming

State Still Coping With Past Budgetary Borrowing

Legislative Considerations

Part II: Perspectives on the Economy and Demographics


Recent U.S. Developments

Solid Growth In 2005

Slowdown in Fourth Quarter Likely to Be Short-Lived

Energy Prices Soared …

… But They Did Not Derail the Economy

Job and Income Growth Moderate

Profits Jumped

California Trends

State Economic Performance Better Than Expected For Most of 2005 …

… Although Residential Real Estate Softened Late In the Year

Extent of Employment Growth Remains Uncertain

All Major Industries and Regions Expanded In 2005

Export Growth Slowed in 2005

The Budget’s Economic Outlook

LAO’s Economic Outlook

National Outlook

Energy Costs to Stabilize

Inflation to Ease

U.S. Budget Deficits to Remain Large

California Outlook

Key Forecast Risks

Energy Costs

Real Estate Activity

Comparison to Other Forecasts

The Demographic Outlook

State Population to Approach 38 Million in 2007

Population Growth Components

Growth to Vary by Age Group

Overall Budgetary Implications

Part III: Perspectives on State Revenues

The Budget’s Forecast for Total State Revenues

Proposed Revenue-Related Changes

The Budget’s General Fund Revenue Outlook

The Legislative Analyst’s Office’s (LAO) General Fund Revenue Outlook

Cash Trends Have Been Positive

LAO Forecast

Outlook Subject to Significant Downside Risks

The LAO’s Forecast for Major Revenue Sources

Personal Income Tax


Year-to-Year Changes In PIT Liabilities Dominated by Nonwage Income

PIT Revenue Forecast

Revenue Impact of Tax Amnesty

Sales and Use Tax


SUT Rates

Taxable Sales Grew at Moderate Pace in 2005

Outlook-Continued Slowing in 2006 and 2007

SUT Revenue Forecast

Corporation Tax


Profits Soared in 2005

Slower Profit Growth Expected

Baseline Audit Collections Rising

CT Revenue Forecast

Other Revenues and Transfers

The Budget’s Forecast for Special Funds Revenues

Modest Underlying Growth Expected

Part IV: Perspectives on State Expenditures

A. An Overview of State Expenditures

Proposed Total Spending in 2005-06 and 2006-07

Allocation of Total State Spending

General Fund Spending

Special Funds Spending

Local Public Safety Funds Not Included in Special Funds Total

Spending From Federal Funds and Bond Proceeds

Federal Funds

Bond Proceeds

Budgetary Borrowing

State Appropriations Limit

Cost-of-Living Adjustments in the Budget

Important Features of State COLAs

Which Programs Receive COLAs in the 2006-07 Budget?

A Historical Perspective on Spending

B. Major Expenditure Proposals In the 2006-07 Budget

Proposition 98


Governor’s Proposal

Why Is the COLA So High?

Issues for Legislative Consideration

High General Fund Revenues, But Little Additional Proposition 98 Costs

K-14 Funding Is Linked to State’s Fortunes

Proposition 98 Issues Affect Long-Term Cost of K-14 Education

K-12 Proposition 98

Governor’s Proposal

Issues for Legislative Consideration

Higher Education


Governor’s Proposal

Issues for Legislative Consideration

Health Services


Governor’s Proposal Increases General Fund Commitments

Issues for Legislative Consideration

Social Services


Governor’s Proposal

Issues for Legislative Consideration

Judicial and Criminal Justice


Governor’s Proposal

Issues for Legislative Consideration



Governor’s Proposals

Issues for Legislative Consideration



Governor’s Proposal

Issues for Legislative Consideration

Employee Compensation


Governor’s Proposal

Issues for Legislative Consideration

Local Government Mandates


Governor’s Proposal

Issues for Legislative Consideration

Budget Begins Paying Mandate Backlog

Likely Current-Year Mandate Deficiency

Higher Cost for Mandates in 2006-07

No Proposal for AB 3632 Mandates

Provide More Information About Mandates in Budget

Part V: Major Issues Facing the Legislature

Retiree Health Care: A Growing Cost for Government


A Perspective on Emergencies and Disasters in California




California Disasters

Phases of Emergency Management

State Preparedness and Response

Emergency Services Act

Key Features of Response System

Strengths and Vulnerabilities of California’s System

Update on Recent Changes

Governor’s Proposals

Department of Health Services and the Emergency Medical Services Authority

California Department of Food and Agriculture

Office of Homeland Security

Office of Emergency Services

Other Proposals

Proposals Focused on Science are Reasonable

Many of Governor’s Proposals Are Flawed

Failure to Maximize Use of Other Fund Sources

Some Proposals Ill-Conceived

IT Projects Fail to Follow State Policy

Homeland Security and Emergency Services Overlap

Fill Vacancies Before Adding More Positions

Antiterrorism Fund Should Be Used to Fill Funding Gaps

Most Current-Year Proposals Should Wait for Budget

LAO Recommendations

Other Key Considerations

Federal Funding Trends

Reducing Risks Through Infrastructure

Reducing Risks Through Land Use Decisions

Communication During Emergencies

Considering Public Health As a Separate Department

Emergency Health and Social Services



Funding for Transportation: What the New Federal Act Means For California


Reorganizing California’s Energy-Related Activities



Status of the State’s Energy Market

Current Energy Organizational Structure

Problems With the Current Organizational Structure

Multiple Policy-Making Organizations Within the Administration

Duplicative and Overlapping Responsibilities Among Organizations

Limited Accountability for Policy Decisions

Reorganization Proposals

Issues for Legislative Consideration

Timing of Reorganization-Is it Premature?

Creating Clear Lines of Accountability

Deciding Who Should Make Policy

Deciding the Placement and Structure of Regulatory Functions

Deciding the Placement and Structure of Nonregulatory Programs



Mental Health Mandates Continue to Pose Challenges




Administration Still Seeking to Revise the AB 3632 Program

Budget Plan May Not Fully Fund AB 3632 Services

Existing Mandates a Poor Program Model

Weak State Mechanisms to Control Costs

A Lack of Accountability for Ensuring the Quality of Services

Weak Linkages to Education

No Services Provided in Some Instances

Issues for Legislative Consideration

Mandates Should Be Eliminated

Insist on Early Review of Administration Proposal

Options for Reform of AB 3632