May 2019

Proposition 98 Overview

Administration's May Revision Proposition 98 Outlook

(Dollars in Millions)

  2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Minimum Guarantee          
General Fund $54,445 $55,904 $57,023 $58,506 $59,513
Local property tax 23,701 25,166 26,441 27,788 29,196
   Totals $78,146 $81,069 $83,464 $86,294 $88,709
           
Change in General Fund From Prior Year         
Amount $1,493 $1,459 $1,120 $1,482 $1,008
Percent change 2.8% 2.7% 2.0% 2.6% 1.7%
Change in Local Property Tax From Prior Year         
Amount $1,077 $1,464 $1,275 $1,347 $1,408
Percent change 4.8% 6.2% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1%
Change in Guarantee From Prior Year         
Amount $2,570 $2,923 $2,395 $2,829 $2,416
Percent change 3.4% 3.7% 3.0% 3.4% 2.8%
           
Inputs          
General Fund taxesa $142,169 $147,037 $149,951 $153,849 $156,499
K-12 average daily attendance 5,944,769 5,933,407 5,919,264 5,899,132 5,858,132
           
Growth Factors          
Per capita personal income 3.7% 3.9% 3.4% 3.2% 3.1%
Per capita General Fundb 5.4% 2.9% 1.6% 2.3% 1.4%
K-12 average daily attendance -0.3% -0.2% -0.2% -0.3% -0.7%
           
Outcomes          
Proposition 98 operative "test" 2 1 1 1 1
Maintenance factor:          
   Amount created/paid (+/-) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
   Amount outstanding 0 0 0 0 0
State school reserve:          
   Deposit/withdrawal (+/-) $0 $389 —c —c —c
   Cumulative balance 0 389 —c —c —c
           
a Reflects General Fund revenue that affects the calculation of the minimum guarantee.  
b Reflects per capita General Fund plus 0.5 percent (one of the Test 3 factors).   
c May Revision does not contain an estimate of any potential deposit or withdrawal for this year.