May 2019

Proposition 98 Overview

LAO May Proposition 98 Outlook

(Dollars in Millions)

  2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Minimum Guarantee          
General Fund $54,417 $56,043 $57,181 $59,011 $60,995
Local property tax 23,887 25,114 26,474 27,580 28,830
   Totals $78,304 $81,157 $83,655 $86,591 $89,824
           
Change in General Fund From Prior Year         
Amount $1,466 $1,626 $1,137 $1,831 $1,983
Percent change 2.8% 3.0% 2.0% 3.2% 3.4%
Change in Local Property Tax From Prior Year         
Amount $1,262 $1,226 $1,361 $1,106 $1,250
Percent change 5.6% 5.1% 5.4% 4.2% 4.5%
Change in Guarantee From Prior Year         
Amount $2,728 $2,853 $2,498 $2,936 $3,233
Percent change 3.6% 3.6% 3.1% 3.5% 3.7%
           
Inputs          
General Fund taxesa $142,596 $147,424 $150,416 $155,154 $160,369
K-12 average daily attendance 5,944,769 5,933,407 5,919,264 5,899,132 5,858,132
           
Growth Factors          
Per capita personal income 3.7% 3.9% 4.1% 3.2% 3.3%
Per capita General Fundb 5.9% 3.4% 2.0% 3.0% 3.2%
K-12 average daily attendance -0.3% -0.2% -0.2% -0.3% -0.7%
           
Outcomes          
Proposition 98 operative "test" 1 1 1 1 1
Maintenance factor:          
   Amount created/paid (+/-) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
   Amount outstanding 0 0 0 0 0
State school reserve:          
   Deposit/withdrawal (+/-) $0 $313 -$313 $248 $32
   Cumulative balance 0 313 0 248 279
           
a Reflects General Fund revenue that affects the calculation of the minimum guarantee.
b Reflects per capita General Fund plus 0.5 percent (one of the Test 3 factors).