Spring 2020

Proposition 98 Overview

LAO Estimates of Proposition 98 Guarantee Under L-Shaped Scenario

Dollars in Millions

  2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24
Minimum Guarantee          
General Fund $52,926 $43,318 $42,177 $46,431 $50,461
Local property tax 24,921 25,782 26,275 26,633 27,140
   Totals $77,846 $69,100 $68,452 $73,064 $77,602
           
Change in General Fund From Prior Year     
Amount -$1,567 -$9,608 -$1,141 $4,254 $4,031
Percent -2.9% -18.2% -2.6% 10.1% 8.7%
Change in Property Tax From Prior Year     
Amount $905 $861 $493 $358 $507
Percent 3.8% 3.5% 1.9% 1.4% 1.9%
Change in Guarantee From Prior Year     
Amount -$662 -$8,746 -$648 $4,612 $4,538
Percent -0.8% -11.2% -0.9% 6.7% 6.2%
           
Inputs          
General Fund taxesa $139,539 $114,064 $111,063 $122,251 $132,716
K-12 average daily attendance 5,882,342 5,861,182 5,810,070 5,785,551 5,738,141
           
Growth Factors          
Per capita personal income 3.9% 3.7% -9.2% -0.3% 6.0%
Per capita General Fundb -2.0% -18.2% -2.2% 10.8% 8.5%
K-12 average daily attendance -0.6% -0.4% -0.9% -0.4% -0.8%
           
Outcomes          
Proposition 98 operative "test" 1 1 1 1 1
Maintenance factor:          
   Amount created/paid (+/-) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
   Amount outstanding 0 0 0 0 0
Proposition 98 Reserve:          
   Deposit/withdrawal (+/-) $0 $0 $0 $0 $52
   Balance 0 0 0 0 52
           
a Reflects General Fund revenue that affects the calculation of the minimum guarantee.  
b Reflects per capita General Fund plus 0.5 percent (one of the Test 3 factors).