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May 2021

Proposition 98 Overview

Comparing LAO and May Revision Estimates of the Proposition 98 Guarantee

Dollars in Millions

  2020-21 2021-22 2022-23a 2023-24a 2024-25a
May Revision          
General Fund $67,077 $66,374 $68,175 $69,337 $70,733
Local property tax 25,745 27,365 28,996 30,424 31,910
   Totals $92,822 $93,738 $97,171 $99,761 $102,643
           
LAO May Outlook          
General Fund $65,950 $69,009 $71,100 $74,246 $78,329
Local property tax 25,707 27,056 28,426 29,945 31,552
   Totals $91,657 $96,064 $99,526 $104,191 $109,881
           
Change (From May Revision to LAO)      
General Fund -$1,127 $2,635 $2,925 $4,909 $7,596
Local property tax -38 -309 -570 -479 -358
   Totals -$1,165 $2,326 $2,355 $4,430 $7,238
           
a The May Revision proposes to adjust the minimum guarantee upward ("rebench") for the expansion of transitional kindergarten to all four-year old children by 2024-25. The estimates of the guarantee in this table exclude this adjustment. If the Legislature adopts this proposal, the associated increases in the guarantee would be approximately $900 million in 2022-23, $1.8 billion in 2023-24, and $2.7 billion in 2024-25.