Economy and Taxes Publications

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California's Fiscal Outlook: LAO Projections 2000-01 Through 2005-06

November 15, 2000 - California is in the midst of an extraordinary economic and revenue boom. We project that in 2000-01 the State of California's General Fund will end with a reserve of nearly $6.9 billion—up sharply from the $1.8 billion assumed in June when the budget was adopted. In 2001-02, assuming current-law spending and tax policies, we forecast that revenues would exceed expenditures by $3.4 billion, bringing the cumulative reserve to $10.3 billion. We suggest that the $6.9 billion reserve carried into the budget year from 2000-01 be used primarily for one-time purposes; the $3.4 billion annual operating surplus would be available for ongoing purposes.


An Overview of Proposition 37

October 2, 2000 - A Handout presented on September 29, 2000, to Senate Committee on Revenue and Taxation, Senate Committee on Environmental Quality, and Assembly Committee on Revenue and Taxation.


California's Changing Income Distribution

August 10, 2000 - In recent decades the distribution of adjusted gross income reported on California tax returns has shifted significantly, with the share attributable to the top 20 percent of returns rising and that for the bottom 80 percent falling. We examine the changes in California's income distribution and their causes.


Budget, Taxes, and Spending

May 5, 2000 - A slide presentation composed of graphics highlighting trends in several areas including demographics, California's economy, state expenditures and revenues, and taxation.


California's Extraordinary Revenue Developments

April 6, 2000 - General Fund revenues have been accumulating at a dramatic pace in early 2000. If current strong trends continue through the end of the year, revenues in 1999-00 will exceed the administration's January budget forecast by more than $4 billion and our own February estimate by $2 billion. Our updated forecast of the state's fiscal condition for the current and budget years will be published following the May Revision. (Cal Update)


Property Tax Administration Funding Not Ideal Approach

February 17, 2000 - We recommend that the Legislature not extend the sunset of the Property Tax Administration Loan Program and instead consider alternatives that would provide a long-term structural improvement to the property tax system.


Budget Forecast for Special Funds Revenues 2000-01

February 17, 2000 - Budget Forecast for Special Funds Revenues 2000-01


LAO's General Fund Revenue Outlook 2000-01

February 17, 2000 - LAO's General Fund Revenue Outlook 2000-01


Perspectives on State Revenues 2000-01

February 17, 2000 - Perspectives on State Revenues 2000-01


Perspectives on the Economy and Demographics 2000-01

February 17, 2000 - Perspectives on the Economy and Demographics 2000-01


The 2000-01 Budget: Perspectives and Issues

February 17, 2000 - Perspectives on the state's fiscal condition and the budget proposed by the Governor for 2000-01.


Reconsidering AB 8: Exploring Alternative Ways to Allocate Property Taxes

February 3, 2000 - In 1999 the Legislature stated its intent to revamp the property tax allocation system. We examine five alternatives for improving local finance.


California Tax Policy And the Internet

January 31, 2000 - The growth of the Internet raises many tax policy issues. These include: How can we ensure that the tax system is fair without interfering with the Internet's evolution? How will the Internet's growth affect government tax bases? We examine these and other Internet-related tax issues in detail, and recommend that California approach them by pursuing multistate tax agreements and consider undertaking a comprehensive review of telecommunication related levies.


Californians and the Marriage Penalty

December 15, 1999 - Nationally, over 40 percent of married couples currently incur the marriage penalty, which averages about $1,400 per couple. However, even more couples--over 50 percent--receive federal marriage bonuses, totaling several billion dollars more than the marriage penalties. While the likelihood of Californians facing federal marriage penalties is less than nationally, Californians pay a disproportionately large share of such penalties.


California's Fiscal Outlook: LAO Projections 1999-00 to 2004-05

November 17, 1999 - California's fiscal fortunes have again significantly exceeded expectations, due largely to its robust economic performance and the accompanying increases in General Fund revenues. We project that continued revenue growth will trigger all of the vehicle license fee (VLF) reductions previously agreed to, enable full funding of all current-law programs, and produce significant budgetary reserves in the next several years.

Economy and Taxes Staff

Chas Alamo
(916) 319-8357
Personal Income Tax, Employment, and Labor Law
Ross Brown
(916) 319-8345
Property Taxes, Bonds, and the Economy
Ann Hollingshead
(916) 319-8305
State Budget and Federal Funding
Lourdes Morales
(916) 319-8320
Local Government, Housing, and Homelessness
Nick Schroeder
(916) 319-8314
Public Employment, CalPERS, Elections, Veterans Affairs
Bidusha Mudbhari
(916) 319-8363
Corporation Tax and Economic Development
Brian Uhler
(916) 319-8328
Deputy Legislative Analyst: Economy, Taxes, and Labor
Seth Kerstein
(916) 319-8365
Sales and Excise Taxes and Demographics