Staff
Chas Alamo
(916) 319-8357
Personal Income Tax, Employment, and Labor Law
Ann Hollingshead
(916) 319-8305
State Budget and Federal Funding
Nick Schroeder
(916) 319-8314
Public Employment, CalPERS, Elections, Veterans Affairs
Paul Steenhausen
(916) 319-8303
Local Government, Housing, and Homelessness
Brian Uhler
(916) 319-8328
Deputy Legislative Analyst: Economy, Taxes, and Labor
Alex Bentz
(916) 319-8312
Property Taxes, Bonds, and the Economy
Rowan Isaaks
(916) 319-8362
Corporation Tax and Economic Development
Seth Kerstein
(916) 319-8365
Sales and Excise Taxes and Demographics


Publications

Economy and Taxes

To browse all LAO publications, visit our Publications page.



Report

Using Borrowing to Help Address the Budget Problem

February 20, 2002 - We discuss the Governor's different types of budget balancing borrowing ($4.8 billion) and the factors that should be focused on by the Legislature in evaluating these proposals and other types of borrowing options.


Report

The 2002-03 Budget: Perspectives and Issues

February 20, 2002 - Perspectives on the state's fiscal condition and the budget proposed by the Governor for 2002-03. We find that the state will need to identify and additional $5 billion in budget solutions beyond those proposed by the administration.


Report

State Fiscal Picture 2002-03

February 20, 2002 - Based on our projections of revenues and expenditures, adoption of the Governor's spending policies would result in a year-end deficit of about $4.5 billion in 2002-03. This represents a $5 billion deterioration in the budget condition relative to the administration's estimate, which assumes a $511 million reserve.


Report

Perspectives on the Economy and Demographics 2002-03

February 20, 2002 - The U.S. and California economies are nearly one year into a recession that was initially caused by such factors as sharp declines in spending by businesses on capital goods, and then aggravated by the September 11 terrorist attacks. The downturn has been mild so far in terms of employment, although more severe in terms of income losses. Our forecast is that the recession will conclude in the next couple of months and that a sustained expansion will begin before mid-year. While employment will recoup its losses by the end of 2002, the decline in income related to stock options will be longer lasting. Our outlook is predicated on (1) a rebound in high-tech spending in the second half of the year and (2) the absence of significant terrorism-related disruptions to the national or state economies.


Report

Perspectives on State Revenues 2002-03

February 20, 2002 - The state is facing a major budget shortfall caused largely by an unprecedented decline in tax receipts. Specifically, General Fund revenues are projected to fall by over 14 percent in 2001-02, just two years after the state experienced a more than 23 percent increase. In addition, basic revenue volatility has increased in recent years, giving the revenue forecast greater uncertainty.


Other

Options for Addressing the State's Fiscal Problems

February 20, 2002 - We estimate that the state will need to identify $5 billion in additional budget solutions beyond those proposed by the administration. This compendium contains more than 100 expenditure reduction/revenue raising options to help the Legislature address this larger shortfall. In better fiscal times we would not necessarily put such options on the table, however we offer them in the context of a need to solve a growing budget shortfall.


Report

Addressing the State's Fiscal Problem

December 19, 2001 - Due to weak economic and revenue performance, California faces a $12.4 billion budget shortfall in 2002-03. We identify several key budget-balancing principles and strategies and identify specific spending and revenue options for implementing these strategies. Finally, we review the administration's initial proposals to address the current-year shortfall and offer additional current-year options for the Legislature to consider.


Report

California's Fiscal Outlook: LAO Projections, 2001-02 Through 2006-07

November 14, 2001 - California will end 2001-02 with a deficit of $4.5 billion, while the 2002-03 budget year faces a shortfall of $12.4 billion and potentially even more if the recovery we are assuming for next spring is delayed. Annual budget shortfalls will persist well beyond 2002-03 absent corrective actions. Thus substantial ongoing expenditure cuts and/or revenue augmentations are required to bring the budget back into balance.


Report

The Power Crisis is the Key "Wild Card" in the LAO Economic Outlook

February 21, 2001 - The most pressing challenge currently facing the state relates to its electricity crisis, especially in light of the multiplicity of ways that energy affects the economy and ultimately the state's finances.


Report

The 2001-02 Budget: Perspectives and Issues

February 21, 2001 - Perspectives on the state's fiscal condition and the budget proposed by the Governor for 2000-01.


Report

Perspectives on State Revenues 2001-02

February 21, 2001 - Strong economic growth through the end of 2000 is significantly boosting revenues in the current year. However, an economic slowdown in 2001 will depress revenues in the budget year.


Report

Perspectives on the Economy and Demographics 2001-02

February 21, 2001 - Our "bottom line" budget estimates are similar to the administration's. Due to uncertainty related to the state's electricity crisis and to the very unsettled national and state economic environment the Legislature should withhold consideration of the Governor's $2.3 billion of one-time proposals outside of the energy area until May.


Report

State Fiscal Picture 2001-02

February 21, 2001 - Our "bottom line" budget estimates are similar to the administration's. Due to uncertainty related to the state's electricity crisis and to the very unsettled national and state economic environment the Legislature should withhold consideration of the Governor's $2.3 billion of one-time proposals outside of the energy area until May.


Report

Sales Taxation Of Bunker Fuel

January 25, 2001 - Based on our findings, we recommend that the Legislature remove the existing sunset for the current partial Sales and Use Tax (SUT) exemption for bunker fuel sales, and make the exemption permanent. This action would result in treating bunker fuel sales similarly to other export sales and place California ports on par with other U.S. out-of-state ports. We also recommend that the Legislature review the appropriateness of current SUT treatment of fuel sales to common carriers other than vessels, including air and rail common carriers.


Other

California's Tax System: A Primer

January 18, 2001 - The purpose of this primer is to address, in a highly graphical format, various questions, including: What are the different types of taxes upon which California relies? What is their relative importance, and how have they evolved over time? How large a "burden" do these taxes impose on Californians and how is this burden distributed? What types of policy issues are associated with the current tax structure?