Description: We forecast that increases to the Proposition 98 guarantee in 2024-25 and 2025-26, coupled with a preexisting payment obligation, require the state to provide nearly $7.4 billion in one-time funds for schools and community colleges. For 2026-27, we estimate the guarantee is $117.8 billion, an increase of $3.2 billion (2.8 percent) from the previously enacted level. This growth—combined with a required reserve withdrawal—would be just enough to fund a 2.51 percent statutory cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). The state could use the one-time funds to build budget resiliency, which seems especially important given the risks of a stock market downturn.