Assessing UC and CSU Enrollment and Capacity

LAO Contact

January 19, 2017

Appendix

Authorizing Legislation

Chapter 22 of 2015 (SB 81, Committee on Budget and Fiscal Review)

Section 34 (a) The Legislative Analyst’s Office shall conduct a study to assess the need for new campuses of the CSU or the UC. This study shall consist of both of the following parts:

(1) An analysis of the need within certain regions of the state for a CSU campus and statewide for a UC campus. To the extent applicable data are available, this analysis shall include all of the following:

(A) Consideration of enrollment demand based on relative demographic levels and eligible students for each county and statewide. This shall include consideration of 5– to 10–year projections of the college–age population and public high school graduates. It also shall include consideration of data, for the most recent year available, on college preparedness, including the number and share of high school graduates completing the “A–G” admissions requirements and the number and share of transfer–prepared community college students.

(B) For each county and statewide, data on UC and CSU applications, admissions, and enrollment, for the most recent academic year available, and an estimate, based on that data, of college–going rates to UC and CSU.

(2) An analysis of the physical capacities of existing UC and CSU campuses, as set forth in their respective master plans, relative to current enrollment. This analysis shall identify UC or CSU campuses already at maximum capacity and those with remaining physical capacity. The analysis also shall identify which CSU campuses no longer provide enrollment priority for local applicants.

(b) The UC and CSU shall provide data needed by the Legislative Analyst’s Office to meet the requirements of this section to that office upon its request.

(c)(1) The Legislative Analyst’s Office shall submit reports, including, but not necessarily limited to, the data and analyses required by this section, to the Legislature and Department of Finance as follows:

(A) A report relating to CSU shall be submitted on or before January 1, 2017.

(B) A report relating to UC shall be submitted on or before January 1, 2018.

(2) The Legislative Analyst’s Office shall submit the reports required by this section in compliance with Section 9795 of the Government Code.

College Preparedness

2014–15

County	A–G Completers	High School Graduates	Completion Rate	County	A–G Completers	High School Graduates	Completion Rate
Marin	975	1,594	61%	Stanislaus	2,407	7,472	32%
San Francisco	2,529	4,238	60	Merced	1,240	3,855	32
Placer	3,122	5,337	58	Madera	592	1,928	31
Santa Cruz	1,529	2,765	55	Kern	3,530	11,506	31
Alameda	8,150	14,952	55	Mariposa	42	137	31
Yolo	1,118	2,058	54	San Joaquin	2,803	9,172	31
San Mateo	3,219	5,932	54	Butte	625	2,170	29
Santa Clara	9,618	17,941	54	Modoc	26	91	29
Orange	19,147	37,965	50	Imperial	712	2,509	28
Contra Costa	6,044	12,366	49	Trinity	26	93	28
San Diego	16,614	35,000	47	Colusa	82	294	28
Los Angeles	48,720	104,616	47	Shasta	521	1,875	28
Fresno	5,519	12,256	45	Lake	165	596	28
El Dorado	943	2,130	44	Plumas	43	159	27
Napa	648	1,477	44	Kings	488	1,805	27
Statewide	185,179	426,950	43	Glenn	121	464	26
San Benito	326	784	42	Tuolumne	134	535	25
Sacramento	6,555	15,946	41	Mendocino	215	904	24
Riverside	11,989	30,039	40	Calaveras	128	546	23
Santa Barbara	1,674	4,476	37	Yuba	196	842	23
Ventura	3,498	9,551	37	Amador	67	290	23
Solano	1,531	4,202	36	Lassen	86	381	23
San Luis Obispo	1,030	2,842	36	Tehama	133	633	21
Humboldt	430	1,250	34	Del Norte	55	334	16
Sutter	481	1,409	34	Nevada	251	1,578	16
Monterey	1,485	4,376	34	Mono	51	335	15
San Bernardino	9,658	28,564	34	Inyo	121	1,067	11
Sonoma	1,563	4,643	34	Sierraa	—	2	—
Tulare	2,094	6,327	33	Alpine	—	—	—
Siskiyou	110	339	32
aData not available for the two largest high schools in the county.

Transfer Preparedness

2014–15

County	Transfer Prepared Students		Total Enrollment
County	Number	Percent of Total	Number	Percent of Total
Los Angeles	40,332	26%	309,601	26%
Orange	20,248	13	137,175	12
San Diego	17,042	11	106,420	9
Santa Clara	10,893	7	65,066	6
Sacramento	8,077	5	52,079	4
Riverside	6,531	4	49,793	4
Alameda	8,080	5	44,954	4
San Bernardino	4,305	3	42,834	4
Contra Costa	4,554	3	30,595	3
Fresno	4,516	3	30,501	3
Ventura	4,897	3	29,271	2
Santa Barbara	2,854	2	27,724	2
San Joaquin	1,729	1	23,391	2
San Mateo	592	—	21,571	2
Sonoma	1,784	1	19,775	2
Kern	2,150	1	18,940	2
San Francisco	2,181	1	16,395	1
Placer	1,919	1	14,785	1
Monterey	1,538	1	13,877	1
Stanislaus	1,503	1	13,055	1
Butte	1,414	1	12,134	1
Tulare	1,430	1	11,783	1
Santa Cruz	1,026	1	9,988	1
Merced	976	1	9,843	1
Solano	869	1	7,913	1
San Luis Obispo	1,054	1	7,902	1
Shasta	678	—	6,895	1
Imperial	753	—	6,881	1
Napa	714	—	6,167	1
Yuba	630	—	5,651	—
Humboldt	364	—	3,989	—
Marin	417	—	3,856	—
Kings	472	—	3,413	—
Mendocino	295	—	2,951	—
Siskiyou	183	—	2,728	—
El Dorado	275	—	2,252	—
Lassen	101	—	1,910	—
Plumas	188	—	1,763	—
Tuolumne	196	—	1,646	—
Totals	157,760	100%	1,177,464	100%

UC Freshman Applicants

Percent of California Public High School Graduates Applying to UC

County	2000	2005	2010	2015	County	2000	2005	2010	2015
Marin	30%	30%	33%	43%	Mariposa	10%	9%	5%	12%
San Francisco	29	35	42	43	Madera	5	5	7	12
Santa Clara	24	27	30	36	Siskiyou	11	8	11	11
Alameda	22	24	28	34	Lake	4	8	5	11
San Mateo	23	23	27	32	Stanislaus	6	7	8	10
Yolo	23	23	25	28	Tulare	7	7	8	10
Contra Costa	22	22	22	26	Imperial	8	11	8	10
Los Angeles	16	17	20	25	San Benito	10	11	8	10
Orange	19	19	21	25	Sutter	6	7	9	9
San Diego	17	17	18	23	Butte	8	7	7	9
Statewide Average	15	15	17	21	Kern	6	7	8	9
Ventura	15	15	17	20	Calaveras	10	7	6	9
Santa Cruz	17	18	16	19	Kings	7	8	9	8
Napa	14	14	17	19	Amador	10	8	9	8
Santa Barbara	15	16	17	18	Shasta	7	6	7	8
Riverside	12	11	13	18	Yuba	4	5	6	8
Sacramento	13	12	13	17	Trinity	6	10	12	8
Sonoma	15	15	15	16	Tuolumne	12	10	11	7
San Luis Obispo	13	12	14	16	Nevada	10	8	9	7
El Dorado	11	13	15	16	Glenn	4	5	6	7
San Bernardino	9	10	11	15	Colusa	5	4	7	7
Solano	11	12	13	15	Mono	12	13	22	6
Placer	13	12	14	15	Tehama	5	5	4	6
Monterey	11	13	12	15	Modoc	1	2	4	5
Humboldt	11	8	9	13	Del Norte	7	4	5	4
Merced	6	7	9	13	Lassen	5	2	2	4
Fresno	8	8	10	13	Inyo	11	9	3	2
San Joaquin	8	8	10	13	Sierra	4	6	14	—a
Mendocino	12	12	12	12	Alpine	—	—	—	—
Plumas	8	7	10	12
aData not available for two largest high schools in the county.

UC Freshman Admissions

Percent of California Public High School Graduates Admitted to UC

County	2000	2005	2010	2015	County	2000	2005	2010	2015
San Francisco	22%	30%	35%	27%	Madera	4%	4%	6%	8%
Marin	25	29	30	26	Siskiyou	9	7	10	7
Santa Clara	20	25	27	24	Lake	3	6	5	7
Alameda	18	21	24	22	San Benito	8	9	8	7
San Mateo	19	21	23	20	Stanislaus	5	6	7	7
Yolo	21	21	22	18	Butte	7	6	6	6
Contra Costa	18	19	20	16	Imperial	7	9	6	6
Orange	16	17	18	15	Tulare	6	6	7	6
Los Angeles	13	14	16	14	Plumas	7	6	9	6
San Diego	14	15	15	14	Sutter	5	6	8	6
Statewide Average	12	13	14	13	Calaveras	8	7	6	6
Santa Cruz	15	16	14	12	Kern	5	5	7	6
Ventura	12	13	15	12	Amador	8	7	7	6
Santa Barbara	13	14	15	11	Trinity	6	10	12	5
Sacramento	11	10	11	10	Shasta	6	5	6	5
Napa	12	12	15	10	Kings	6	6	7	5
Riverside	10	9	10	10	Tuolumne	10	9	10	5
San Luis Obispo	11	11	13	10	Glenn	3	4	4	4
El Dorado	10	11	13	10	Tehama	5	4	4	4
Sonoma	12	14	13	10	Yuba	4	4	5	4
Solano	9	10	11	9	Nevada	9	7	8	4
Placer	11	11	12	9	Colusa	4	3	6	4
Monterey	9	11	10	9	Del Norte	6	4	5	3
San Bernardino	8	8	8	9	Mono	12	12	22	3
Merced	6	6	8	9	Modoc	1	2	4	2
Mendocino	11	11	11	8	Lassen	5	2	2	2
Mariposa	9	6	4	8	Inyo	9	8	3	1
Fresno	7	7	8	8	Sierra	4	6	14	—a
San Joaquin	7	7	8	8	Alpine	—	—	—	—
Humboldt	10	8	7	8
aData not available for the two largest high schools in the county.

CSU Freshman Applicants

Percent of California Public High School Graduates Applying to CSU

County	2000	2005	2010	2015	County	2000	2005	2010	2015
San Francisco	45%	54%	62%	69%	Solano	21%	25%	26%	30%
Marin	33	41	45	62	Sonoma	22	24	25	30
Alameda	32	39	46	52	Humboldt	25	22	27	29
Los Angeles	26	33	41	52	San Luis Obispo	24	26	29	29
San Mateo	30	37	44	49	Santa Barbara	16	20	22	28
Santa Clara	30	36	41	48	Kings	20	21	25	28
Fresno	23	27	35	44	Mendocino	17	20	21	27
Contra Costa	27	32	36	43	Sutter	14	18	20	25
Yolo	26	28	34	42	Imperial	16	27	22	24
Statewide Average	23	28	34	41	Siskiyou	18	21	23	23
Orange	23	28	33	40	Lake	12	16	18	23
San Diego	26	29	33	39	Butte	25	22	24	23
Placer	21	25	28	37	Plumas	19	12	16	22
Sacramento	22	24	29	36	Glenn	25	26	29	21
Santa Cruz	21	28	29	35	Amador	17	19	18	20
Riverside	18	22	28	34	Tehama	14	14	11	20
Merced	19	20	25	34	Mariposa	15	18	18	19
Monterey	21	35	31	34	Yuba	13	17	15	18
Napa	21	23	26	34	Modoc	2	3	3	18
Kern	18	22	26	33	Tuolumne	20	16	20	17
San Bernardino	18	22	26	33	Del Norte	18	12	21	16
Colusa	23	27	30	33	Shasta	12	14	16	16
Stanislaus	18	18	25	33	Calaveras	19	23	19	12
San Benito	24	27	25	32	Nevada	20	15	15	12
Madera	17	17	22	32	Mono	29	15	31	10
Tulare	17	21	27	32	Lassen	7	8	7	8
El Dorado	22	24	32	32	Inyo	20	28	9	4
Trinity	11	20	45	31	Sierra	14	24	33	—a
San Joaquin	18	20	25	31	Alpine	—	33	—	—
Ventura	17	22	28	31
aData not avilable for two largest high schools in the county.

CSU Freshman Admissions

Percent of California Public High School Graduates Admitted to CSU

County	2000	2005	2010	2015	County	2000	2005	2010	2015
San Francisco	33%	40%	45%	50%	Trinity	10%	15%	35%	24%
Marin	25	33	35	48	Solano	17	19	20	23
Alameda	24	29	32	40	San Luis Obispo	18	21	23	23
Santa Clara	23	28	33	37	Sonoma	18	19	20	23
San Mateo	22	28	32	37	Kings	16	15	19	22
Los Angeles	19	23	27	36	Mendocino	15	17	18	21
Fresno	18	22	26	36	Sutter	12	15	17	21
Yolo	19	21	27	34	Siskiyou	14	16	20	20
Contra Costa	20	25	27	31	Butte	22	20	20	20
Placer	16	21	23	31	Santa Barbara	12	15	16	20
Statewide Average	18	21	24	30	Plumas	15	8	12	19
San Diego	21	23	23	30	Lake	11	13	11	18
Orange	18	22	25	29	Amador	14	17	14	18
Sacramento	16	18	22	29	Mariposa	13	14	17	18
Tulare	14	17	21	27	Imperial	11	18	13	17
Stanislaus	15	16	18	27	Tehama	13	12	10	17
San Benito	19	22	19	27	Yuba	10	12	12	16
Madera	14	14	17	27	Tuolumne	16	14	14	15
Merced	16	16	18	27	Glenn	22	19	24	15
Monterey	16	22	23	26	Del Norte	15	11	16	14
El Dorado	17	20	27	26	Shasta	10	11	14	13
Santa Cruz	17	21	23	26	Modoc	2	2	3	12
Napa	16	20	21	26	Calaveras	15	19	15	10
Humboldt	22	18	23	25	Mono	19	13	20	10
Ventura	13	17	21	25	Nevada	17	13	13	9
Colusa	19	21	23	25	Lassen	6	7	6	6
Kern	14	17	19	25	Inyo	16	18	8	3
San Bernardino	15	17	16	25	Sierra	11	24	29	—a
Riverside	14	17	17	24	Alpine	—	—	—	—
San Joaquin	15	14	18	24
aData not available for the two largest high schools in the county.

UC Transfer Admissions

Percent of Transfer Applicants From California Community Colleges Admitted to UC

County	2000	2005	2010	2015
Lassen	100%	89%	67%	100%
Plumas	58	60	60	100
Mendocino	80	83	73	83
Yuba	86	86	82	76
Sonoma	84	84	88	75
Contra Costa	81	84	82	74
El Dorado	87	84	88	73
Alameda	79	83	82	73
San Francisco	79	81	81	72
San Luis Obispo	73	77	75	72
Yolo	—	—	63	72
Santa Clara	78	83	81	72
Ventura	78	81	77	71
Sacramento	87	86	83	70
Marin	78	82	79	70
San Mateo	77	88	85	70
Butte	74	83	74	70
Statewide Average	79	80	78	69
Tuolumne	84	80	94	69
Tulare	84	90	74	69
Santa Barbara	72	76	75	69
Los Angeles	75	79	77	69
Shasta	76	80	78	69
Kings	—	—	64	69
Placer	83	85	83	68
San Diego	77	79	77	68
Santa Cruz	85	84	82	67
Napa	85	83	87	67
Orange	79	77	77	67
Monterey	78	81	81	66
Riverside	86	76	75	66
Fresno	85	81	73	66
San Joaquin	85	81	79	65
Stanislaus	77	82	72	64
Imperial	86	84	84	63
San Bernardino	84	75	74	62
Kern	69	81	78	62
Solano	84	89	73	61
Merced	80	85	77	60
Siskiyou	85	100	69	50
Humboldt	100	80	86	48

CSU Transfer Admissions

Percent of Transfer Applicants from California Community Colleges to CSU

County	2000	2005	2010	2015
Ventura	72%	92%	79%	93%
Butte	80	88	86	92
Merced	79	89	76	92
San Bernardino	74	85	64	92
Yuba	79	86	91	91
Tuolumne	82	89	89	90
Napa	78	85	80	90
San Luis Obispo	62	96	65	90
Siskiyou	71	81	70	90
Kern	78	87	81	89
Sacramento	79	89	91	89
Placer	76	86	92	89
Santa Cruz	75	92	92	89
Monterey	74	92	79	89
Yolo	20	—	93	89
Stanislaus	79	92	76	88
Shasta	80	91	85	88
Tulare	79	96	80	88
Humboldt	78	85	89	88
San Mateo	77	91	76	88
San Francisco	76	90	85	88
Alameda	70	86	72	88
Statewide Average	71	89	76	87
Riverside	72	84	62	87
Orange	71	90	84	87
Sonoma	79	93	79	87
Solano	74	84	78	87
Fresno	74	95	78	87
San Joaquin	79	91	79	86
Mendocino	78	86	97	86
Los Angeles	65	88	68	86
El Dorado	62	85	81	85
Contra Costa	73	89	75	85
Santa Barbara	68	90	61	84
San Diego	76	89	68	83
Lassen	76	70	85	83
Imperial	74	88	69	83
Santa Clara	68	91	89	81
Plumas	83	75	81	80
Marin	68	84	82	79
Kings	—	—	74	74

UC Freshman Participation

Percent of California Public High School Graduates Enrolling at UC

County	2000	2005	2010	2015	County	2000	2005	2010	2015
San Francisco	14%	21%	22%	18%	Mendocino	5%	6%	5%	4%
Alameda	11	12	13	12	Humboldt	5	4	3	4
Marin	14	14	12	12	Madera	3	2	3	4
Santa Clara	12	15	14	11	Amador	3	3	3	4
San Mateo	11	12	11	10	Fresno	3	4	4	4
Yolo	14	12	11	10	San Joaquin	4	3	4	4
Orange	10	10	8	8	Stanislaus	3	3	4	4
Contra Costa	11	10	9	8	Imperial	4	4	4	4
Los Angeles	8	8	8	8	Tulare	3	3	3	4
San Diego	8	7	7	7	Butte	4	3	2	3
Statewide Average	7	7	7	7	Kern	2	3	3	3
Riverside	6	5	6	6	Sutter	3	4	3	3
Napa	6	6	6	6	Kings	3	3	4	3
Solano	5	5	5	6	Shasta	4	3	3	3
Ventura	7	7	7	6	Calaveras	5	4	2	3
Sacramento	6	6	5	6	Trinity	4	6	6	2
Merced	3	4	5	6	Yuba	2	3	2	2
Sonoma	7	7	6	5	Glenn	1	2	2	2
El Dorado	5	6	5	5	Tehama	3	2	2	2
Santa Cruz	9	8	6	5	Nevada	5	4	3	2
San Luis Obispo	6	5	6	5	Colusa	2	—	2	2
Plumas	5	5	4	5	Tuolumne	5	4	4	2
Placer	5	5	6	5	Mono	6	3	8	2
Santa Barbara	7	7	6	5	Del Norte	4	3	2	1
Monterey	5	7	5	5	Inyo	3	4	1	1
San Benito	5	5	4	5	Lassen	2	1	1	1
San Bernardino	5	5	5	5	Modoc	1	0	3	—
Mariposa	4	2	3	5	Sierra	1	—	5	—a
Lake	2	4	2	5	Alpine	—	—	—	—
Siskiyou	4	3	6	4
aData not available for the two largest high schools in the county.

CSU Freshman Participation

Percent of California Public High School Graduates Enrolling at CSU

County	2000	2005	2010	2015	County	2000	2005	2010	2015
San Francisco	18%	16%	17%	21%	Solano	10%	11%	9%	11%
Fresno	13	14	15	20	Sonoma	10	10	8	11
Marin	12	13	12	18	Napa	9	9	9	10
Los Angeles	10	12	11	16	Sutter	7	9	7	10
Stanislaus	10	10	11	16	Ventura	7	8	9	10
Alameda	14	15	13	16	Kings	10	8	10	10
Yolo	11	11	12	15	Mariposa	6	6	9	9
Sacramento	11	11	10	15	Mendocino	8	7	7	9
San Mateo	12	14	12	14	Trinity	8	7	15	9
Santa Clara	13	14	13	14	Glenn	16	14	15	9
Placer	10	11	10	14	Plumas	8	2	5	8
Statewide Average	10	11	11	14	Amador	7	10	8	8
Kern	9	11	11	14	Imperial	5	8	5	8
Merced	10	10	10	13	Siskiyou	8	7	9	8
San Diego	11	12	10	13	Yuba	6	6	6	8
San Benito	11	13	10	13	Santa Barbara	6	7	6	7
Tulare	8	10	9	13	Lake	8	8	6	7
Madera	9	8	10	13	Del Norte	10	5	7	7
San Bernardino	9	10	9	12	Tehama	8	8	5	6
Monterey	8	11	10	12	Modoc	1	2	2	5
Humboldt	14	11	12	12	Tuolumne	8	6	4	5
Contra Costa	10	12	11	12	Calaveras	9	11	8	5
Orange	9	11	11	12	Shasta	6	5	5	5
Colusa	12	11	12	12	Nevada	9	6	6	4
Riverside	7	9	8	11	Mono	8	6	8	3
San Joaquin	8	8	9	11	Lassen	2	2	2	2
Santa Cruz	10	11	10	11	Inyo	9	7	3	1
San Luis Obispo	12	13	10	11	Sierra	8	14	17	—a
Butte	14	13	11	11	Alpine	—	—	—	—
El Dorado	10	11	11	11
aData not available for the two largest high schools in the county.

Degree Attainment

Percent of Adults With a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, 2010–2014 Five Year Average

County	Percent	County	Percent
Marin	55%	Mariposa	22%
San Francisco	53	Trinity	22
Santa Clara	47	Inyo	21
San Mateo	45	Calaveras	21
Alameda	42	Riverside	21
Contra Costa	40	Amador	21
Yolo	38	Tuolumne	20
Santa Cruz	38	Fresno	20
Orange	37	Shasta	19
Placer	36	Sierra	19
San Diego	35	San Benito	19
Mono	33	San Bernardino	19
Nevada	33	Modoc	19
Sonoma	33	Sutter	19
El Dorado	32	San Joaquin	18
San Luis Obispo	32	Stanislaus	16
Napa	32	Lake	16
Ventura	32	Del Norte	16
Santa Barbara	31	Glenn	16
Alpine	31	Kern	15
Los Angeles	30	Colusa	14
Statewide Average	30	Yuba	14
Sacramento	28	Tehama	14
Humboldt	28	Madera	14
Butte	25	Imperial	13
Solano	24	Tulare	13
Siskiyou	24	Merced	13
Monterey	23	Lassen	13
Plumas	23	Kings	13
Mendocino	23