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Jason Constantouros

LAO Report
January 19, 2017

Appendix

Authorizing Legislation


Chapter 22 of 2015 (SB 81, Committee on Budget and Fiscal Review)

Section 34 (a) The Legislative Analyst’s Office shall conduct a study to assess the need for new campuses of the CSU or the UC. This study shall consist of both of the following parts:

(1) An analysis of the need within certain regions of the state for a CSU campus and statewide for a UC campus. To the extent applicable data are available, this analysis shall include all of the following:

(A) Consideration of enrollment demand based on relative demographic levels and eligible students for each county and statewide. This shall include consideration of 5– to 10–year projections of the college–age population and public high school graduates. It also shall include consideration of data, for the most recent year available, on college preparedness, including the number and share of high school graduates completing the “A–G” admissions requirements and the number and share of transfer–prepared community college students.

(B) For each county and statewide, data on UC and CSU applications, admissions, and enrollment, for the most recent academic year available, and an estimate, based on that data, of college–going rates to UC and CSU.

(C) Data on adult educational attainment by county and statewide for the most recent year available.

(2) An analysis of the physical capacities of existing UC and CSU campuses, as set forth in their respective master plans, relative to current enrollment. This analysis shall identify UC or CSU campuses already at maximum capacity and those with remaining physical capacity. The analysis also shall identify which CSU campuses no longer provide enrollment priority for local applicants.

(b) The UC and CSU shall provide data needed by the Legislative Analyst’s Office to meet the requirements of this section to that office upon its request.

(c)(1) The Legislative Analyst’s Office shall submit reports, including, but not necessarily limited to, the data and analyses required by this section, to the Legislature and Department of Finance as follows:

(A) A report relating to CSU shall be submitted on or before January 1, 2017.

(B) A report relating to UC shall be submitted on or before January 1, 2018.

(2) The Legislative Analyst’s Office shall submit the reports required by this section in compliance with Section 9795 of the Government Code.


Selected County–Level Data

College Preparedness

2014–15

County

A–G Completers

High School Graduates

Completion Rate

County

A–G Completers

High School Graduates

Completion Rate

Marin

975

1,594

61%

Stanislaus

2,407

7,472

32%

San Francisco

2,529

4,238

60

Merced

1,240

3,855

32

Placer

3,122

5,337

58

Madera

592

1,928

31

Santa Cruz

1,529

2,765

55

Kern

3,530

11,506

31

Alameda

8,150

14,952

55

Mariposa

42

137

31

Yolo

1,118

2,058

54

San Joaquin

2,803

9,172

31

San Mateo

3,219

5,932

54

Butte

625

2,170

29

Santa Clara

9,618

17,941

54

Modoc

26

91

29

Orange

19,147

37,965

50

Imperial

712

2,509

28

Contra Costa

6,044

12,366

49

Trinity

26

93

28

San Diego

16,614

35,000

47

Colusa

82

294

28

Los Angeles

48,720

104,616

47

Shasta

521

1,875

28

Fresno

5,519

12,256

45

Lake

165

596

28

El Dorado

943

2,130

44

Plumas

43

159

27

Napa

648

1,477

44

Kings

488

1,805

27

Statewide

185,179

426,950

43

Glenn

121

464

26

San Benito

326

784

42

Tuolumne

134

535

25

Sacramento

6,555

15,946

41

Mendocino

215

904

24

Riverside

11,989

30,039

40

Calaveras

128

546

23

Santa Barbara

1,674

4,476

37

Yuba

196

842

23

Ventura

3,498

9,551

37

Amador

67

290

23

Solano

1,531

4,202

36

Lassen

86

381

23

San Luis Obispo

1,030

2,842

36

Tehama

133

633

21

Humboldt

430

1,250

34

Del Norte

55

334

16

Sutter

481

1,409

34

Nevada

251

1,578

16

Monterey

1,485

4,376

34

Mono

51

335

15

San Bernardino

9,658

28,564

34

Inyo

121

1,067

11

Sonoma

1,563

4,643

34

Sierraa

2

Tulare

2,094

6,327

33

Alpine

Siskiyou

110

339

32

aData not available for the two largest high schools in the county.

Transfer Preparedness

2014–15

County

Transfer Prepared Students

Total Enrollment

Number

Percent of Total

Number

Percent of Total

Los Angeles

40,332

26%

309,601

26%

Orange

20,248

13

137,175

12

San Diego

17,042

11

106,420

9

Santa Clara

10,893

7

65,066

6

Sacramento

8,077

5

52,079

4

Riverside

6,531

4

49,793

4

Alameda

8,080

5

44,954

4

San Bernardino

4,305

3

42,834

4

Contra Costa

4,554

3

30,595

3

Fresno

4,516

3

30,501

3

Ventura

4,897

3

29,271

2

Santa Barbara

2,854

2

27,724

2

San Joaquin

1,729

1

23,391

2

San Mateo

592

21,571

2

Sonoma

1,784

1

19,775

2

Kern

2,150

1

18,940

2

San Francisco

2,181

1

16,395

1

Placer

1,919

1

14,785

1

Monterey

1,538

1

13,877

1

Stanislaus

1,503

1

13,055

1

Butte

1,414

1

12,134

1

Tulare

1,430

1

11,783

1

Santa Cruz

1,026

1

9,988

1

Merced

976

1

9,843

1

Solano

869

1

7,913

1

San Luis Obispo

1,054

1

7,902

1

Shasta

678

6,895

1

Imperial

753

6,881

1

Napa

714

6,167

1

Yuba

630

5,651

Humboldt

364

3,989

Marin

417

3,856

Kings

472

3,413

Mendocino

295

2,951

Siskiyou

183

2,728

El Dorado

275

2,252

Lassen

101

1,910

Plumas

188

1,763

Tuolumne

196

1,646

Totals

157,760

100%

1,177,464

100%

UC Freshman Applicants

Percent of California Public High School Graduates Applying to UC

County

2000

2005

2010

2015

County

2000

2005

2010

2015

Marin

30%

30%

33%

43%

Mariposa

10%

9%

5%

12%

San Francisco

29

35

42

43

Madera

5

5

7

12

Santa Clara

24

27

30

36

Siskiyou

11

8

11

11

Alameda

22

24

28

34

Lake

4

8

5

11

San Mateo

23

23

27

32

Stanislaus

6

7

8

10

Yolo

23

23

25

28

Tulare

7

7

8

10

Contra Costa

22

22

22

26

Imperial

8

11

8

10

Los Angeles

16

17

20

25

San Benito

10

11

8

10

Orange

19

19

21

25

Sutter

6

7

9

9

San Diego

17

17

18

23

Butte

8

7

7

9

Statewide Average

15

15

17

21

Kern

6

7

8

9

Ventura

15

15

17

20

Calaveras

10

7

6

9

Santa Cruz

17

18

16

19

Kings

7

8

9

8

Napa

14

14

17

19

Amador

10

8

9

8

Santa Barbara

15

16

17

18

Shasta

7

6

7

8

Riverside

12

11

13

18

Yuba

4

5

6

8

Sacramento

13

12

13

17

Trinity

6

10

12

8

Sonoma

15

15

15

16

Tuolumne

12

10

11

7

San Luis Obispo

13

12

14

16

Nevada

10

8

9

7

El Dorado

11

13

15

16

Glenn

4

5

6

7

San Bernardino

9

10

11

15

Colusa

5

4

7

7

Solano

11

12

13

15

Mono

12

13

22

6

Placer

13

12

14

15

Tehama

5

5

4

6

Monterey

11

13

12

15

Modoc

1

2

4

5

Humboldt

11

8

9

13

Del Norte

7

4

5

4

Merced

6

7

9

13

Lassen

5

2

2

4

Fresno

8

8

10

13

Inyo

11

9

3

2

San Joaquin

8

8

10

13

Sierra

4

6

14

a

Mendocino

12

12

12

12

Alpine

Plumas

8

7

10

12

aData not available for two largest high schools in the county.

UC Freshman Admissions

Percent of California Public High School Graduates Admitted to UC

County

2000

2005

2010

2015

County

2000

2005

2010

2015

San Francisco

22%

30%

35%

27%

Madera

4%

4%

6%

8%

Marin

25

29

30

26

Siskiyou

9

7

10

7

Santa Clara

20

25

27

24

Lake

3

6

5

7

Alameda

18

21

24

22

San Benito

8

9

8

7

San Mateo

19

21

23

20

Stanislaus

5

6

7

7

Yolo

21

21

22

18

Butte

7

6

6

6

Contra Costa

18

19

20

16

Imperial

7

9

6

6

Orange

16

17

18

15

Tulare

6

6

7

6

Los Angeles

13

14

16

14

Plumas

7

6

9

6

San Diego

14

15

15

14

Sutter

5

6

8

6

Statewide Average

12

13

14

13

Calaveras

8

7

6

6

Santa Cruz

15

16

14

12

Kern

5

5

7

6

Ventura

12

13

15

12

Amador

8

7

7

6

Santa Barbara

13

14

15

11

Trinity

6

10

12

5

Sacramento

11

10

11

10

Shasta

6

5

6

5

Napa

12

12

15

10

Kings

6

6

7

5

Riverside

10

9

10

10

Tuolumne

10

9

10

5

San Luis Obispo

11

11

13

10

Glenn

3

4

4

4

El Dorado

10

11

13

10

Tehama

5

4

4

4

Sonoma

12

14

13

10

Yuba

4

4

5

4

Solano

9

10

11

9

Nevada

9

7

8

4

Placer

11

11

12

9

Colusa

4

3

6

4

Monterey

9

11

10

9

Del Norte

6

4

5

3

San Bernardino

8

8

8

9

Mono

12

12

22

3

Merced

6

6

8

9

Modoc

1

2

4

2

Mendocino

11

11

11

8

Lassen

5

2

2

2

Mariposa

9

6

4

8

Inyo

9

8

3

1

Fresno

7

7

8

8

Sierra

4

6

14

a

San Joaquin

7

7

8

8

Alpine

Humboldt

10

8

7

8

aData not available for the two largest high schools in the county.

CSU Freshman Applicants

Percent of California Public High School Graduates Applying to CSU

County

2000

2005

2010

2015

County

2000

2005

2010

2015

San Francisco

45%

54%

62%

69%

Solano

21%

25%

26%

30%

Marin

33

41

45

62

Sonoma

22

24

25

30

Alameda

32

39

46

52

Humboldt

25

22

27

29

Los Angeles

26

33

41

52

San Luis Obispo

24

26

29

29

San Mateo

30

37

44

49

Santa Barbara

16

20

22

28

Santa Clara

30

36

41

48

Kings

20

21

25

28

Fresno

23

27

35

44

Mendocino

17

20

21

27

Contra Costa

27

32

36

43

Sutter

14

18

20

25

Yolo

26

28

34

42

Imperial

16

27

22

24

Statewide Average

23

28

34

41

Siskiyou

18

21

23

23

Orange

23

28

33

40

Lake

12

16

18

23

San Diego

26

29

33

39

Butte

25

22

24

23

Placer

21

25

28

37

Plumas

19

12

16

22

Sacramento

22

24

29

36

Glenn

25

26

29

21

Santa Cruz

21

28

29

35

Amador

17

19

18

20

Riverside

18

22

28

34

Tehama

14

14

11

20

Merced

19

20

25

34

Mariposa

15

18

18

19

Monterey

21

35

31

34

Yuba

13

17

15

18

Napa

21

23

26

34

Modoc

2

3

3

18

Kern

18

22

26

33

Tuolumne

20

16

20

17

San Bernardino

18

22

26

33

Del Norte

18

12

21

16

Colusa

23

27

30

33

Shasta

12

14

16

16

Stanislaus

18

18

25

33

Calaveras

19

23

19

12

San Benito

24

27

25

32

Nevada

20

15

15

12

Madera

17

17

22

32

Mono

29

15

31

10

Tulare

17

21

27

32

Lassen

7

8

7

8

El Dorado

22

24

32

32

Inyo

20

28

9

4

Trinity

11

20

45

31

Sierra

14

24

33

a

San Joaquin

18

20

25

31

Alpine

33

Ventura

17

22

28

31

aData not avilable for two largest high schools in the county.

CSU Freshman Admissions

Percent of California Public High School Graduates Admitted to CSU

County

2000

2005

2010

2015

County

2000

2005

2010

2015

San Francisco

33%

40%

45%

50%

Trinity

10%

15%

35%

24%

Marin

25

33

35

48

Solano

17

19

20

23

Alameda

24

29

32

40

San Luis Obispo

18

21

23

23

Santa Clara

23

28

33

37

Sonoma

18

19

20

23

San Mateo

22

28

32

37

Kings

16

15

19

22

Los Angeles

19

23

27

36

Mendocino

15

17

18

21

Fresno

18

22

26

36

Sutter

12

15

17

21

Yolo

19

21

27

34

Siskiyou

14

16

20

20

Contra Costa

20

25

27

31

Butte

22

20

20

20

Placer

16

21

23

31

Santa Barbara

12

15

16

20

Statewide Average

18

21

24

30

Plumas

15

8

12

19

San Diego

21

23

23

30

Lake

11

13

11

18

Orange

18

22

25

29

Amador

14

17

14

18

Sacramento

16

18

22

29

Mariposa

13

14

17

18

Tulare

14

17

21

27

Imperial

11

18

13

17

Stanislaus

15

16

18

27

Tehama

13

12

10

17

San Benito

19

22

19

27

Yuba

10

12

12

16

Madera

14

14

17

27

Tuolumne

16

14

14

15

Merced

16

16

18

27

Glenn

22

19

24

15

Monterey

16

22

23

26

Del Norte

15

11

16

14

El Dorado

17

20

27

26

Shasta

10

11

14

13

Santa Cruz

17

21

23

26

Modoc

2

2

3

12

Napa

16

20

21

26

Calaveras

15

19

15

10

Humboldt

22

18

23

25

Mono

19

13

20

10

Ventura

13

17

21

25

Nevada

17

13

13

9

Colusa

19

21

23

25

Lassen

6

7

6

6

Kern

14

17

19

25

Inyo

16

18

8

3

San Bernardino

15

17

16

25

Sierra

11

24

29

a

Riverside

14

17

17

24

Alpine

San Joaquin

15

14

18

24

aData not available for the two largest high schools in the county.

UC Transfer Admissions

Percent of Transfer Applicants From California Community Colleges Admitted to UC

County

2000

2005

2010

2015

Lassen

100%

89%

67%

100%

Plumas

58

60

60

100

Mendocino

80

83

73

83

Yuba

86

86

82

76

Sonoma

84

84

88

75

Contra Costa

81

84

82

74

El Dorado

87

84

88

73

Alameda

79

83

82

73

San Francisco

79

81

81

72

San Luis Obispo

73

77

75

72

Yolo

63

72

Santa Clara

78

83

81

72

Ventura

78

81

77

71

Sacramento

87

86

83

70

Marin

78

82

79

70

San Mateo

77

88

85

70

Butte

74

83

74

70

Statewide Average

79

80

78

69

Tuolumne

84

80

94

69

Tulare

84

90

74

69

Santa Barbara

72

76

75

69

Los Angeles

75

79

77

69

Shasta

76

80

78

69

Kings

64

69

Placer

83

85

83

68

San Diego

77

79

77

68

Santa Cruz

85

84

82

67

Napa

85

83

87

67

Orange

79

77

77

67

Monterey

78

81

81

66

Riverside

86

76

75

66

Fresno

85

81

73

66

San Joaquin

85

81

79

65

Stanislaus

77

82

72

64

Imperial

86

84

84

63

San Bernardino

84

75

74

62

Kern

69

81

78

62

Solano

84

89

73

61

Merced

80

85

77

60

Siskiyou

85

100

69

50

Humboldt

100

80

86

48

CSU Transfer Admissions

Percent of Transfer Applicants from California Community Colleges to CSU

County

2000

2005

2010

2015

Ventura

72%

92%

79%

93%

Butte

80

88

86

92

Merced

79

89

76

92

San Bernardino

74

85

64

92

Yuba

79

86

91

91

Tuolumne

82

89

89

90

Napa

78

85

80

90

San Luis Obispo

62

96

65

90

Siskiyou

71

81

70

90

Kern

78

87

81

89

Sacramento

79

89

91

89

Placer

76

86

92

89

Santa Cruz

75

92

92

89

Monterey

74

92

79

89

Yolo

20

93

89

Stanislaus

79

92

76

88

Shasta

80

91

85

88

Tulare

79

96

80

88

Humboldt

78

85

89

88

San Mateo

77

91

76

88

San Francisco

76

90

85

88

Alameda

70

86

72

88

Statewide Average

71

89

76

87

Riverside

72

84

62

87

Orange

71

90

84

87

Sonoma

79

93

79

87

Solano

74

84

78

87

Fresno

74

95

78

87

San Joaquin

79

91

79

86

Mendocino

78

86

97

86

Los Angeles

65

88

68

86

El Dorado

62

85

81

85

Contra Costa

73

89

75

85

Santa Barbara

68

90

61

84

San Diego

76

89

68

83

Lassen

76

70

85

83

Imperial

74

88

69

83

Santa Clara

68

91

89

81

Plumas

83

75

81

80

Marin

68

84

82

79

Kings

74

74

UC Freshman Participation

Percent of California Public High School Graduates Enrolling at UC

County

2000

2005

2010

2015

County

2000

2005

2010

2015

San Francisco

14%

21%

22%

18%

Mendocino

5%

6%

5%

4%

Alameda

11

12

13

12

Humboldt

5

4

3

4

Marin

14

14

12

12

Madera

3

2

3

4

Santa Clara

12

15

14

11

Amador

3

3

3

4

San Mateo

11

12

11

10

Fresno

3

4

4

4

Yolo

14

12

11

10

San Joaquin

4

3

4

4

Orange

10

10

8

8

Stanislaus

3

3

4

4

Contra Costa

11

10

9

8

Imperial

4

4

4

4

Los Angeles

8

8

8

8

Tulare

3

3

3

4

San Diego

8

7

7

7

Butte

4

3

2

3

Statewide Average

7

7

7

7

Kern

2

3

3

3

Riverside

6

5

6

6

Sutter

3

4

3

3

Napa

6

6

6

6

Kings

3

3

4

3

Solano

5

5

5

6

Shasta

4

3

3

3

Ventura

7

7

7

6

Calaveras

5

4

2

3

Sacramento

6

6

5

6

Trinity

4

6

6

2

Merced

3

4

5

6

Yuba

2

3

2

2

Sonoma

7

7

6

5

Glenn

1

2

2

2

El Dorado

5

6

5

5

Tehama

3

2

2

2

Santa Cruz

9

8

6

5

Nevada

5

4

3

2

San Luis Obispo

6

5

6

5

Colusa

2

2

2

Plumas

5

5

4

5

Tuolumne

5

4

4

2

Placer

5

5

6

5

Mono

6

3

8

2

Santa Barbara

7

7

6

5

Del Norte

4

3

2

1

Monterey

5

7

5

5

Inyo

3

4

1

1

San Benito

5

5

4

5

Lassen

2

1

1

1

San Bernardino

5

5

5

5

Modoc

1

0

3

Mariposa

4

2

3

5

Sierra

1

5

a

Lake

2

4

2

5

Alpine

Siskiyou

4

3

6

4

aData not available for the two largest high schools in the county.

CSU Freshman Participation

Percent of California Public High School Graduates Enrolling at CSU

County

2000

2005

2010

2015

County

2000

2005

2010

2015

San Francisco

18%

16%

17%

21%

Solano

10%

11%

9%

11%

Fresno

13

14

15

20

Sonoma

10

10

8

11

Marin

12

13

12

18

Napa

9

9

9

10

Los Angeles

10

12

11

16

Sutter

7

9

7

10

Stanislaus

10

10

11

16

Ventura

7

8

9

10

Alameda

14

15

13

16

Kings

10

8

10

10

Yolo

11

11

12

15

Mariposa

6

6

9

9

Sacramento

11

11

10

15

Mendocino

8

7

7

9

San Mateo

12

14

12

14

Trinity

8

7

15

9

Santa Clara

13

14

13

14

Glenn

16

14

15

9

Placer

10

11

10

14

Plumas

8

2

5

8

Statewide Average

10

11

11

14

Amador

7

10

8

8

Kern

9

11

11

14

Imperial

5

8

5

8

Merced

10

10

10

13

Siskiyou

8

7

9

8

San Diego

11

12

10

13

Yuba

6

6

6

8

San Benito

11

13

10

13

Santa Barbara

6

7

6

7

Tulare

8

10

9

13

Lake

8

8

6

7

Madera

9

8

10

13

Del Norte

10

5

7

7

San Bernardino

9

10

9

12

Tehama

8

8

5

6

Monterey

8

11

10

12

Modoc

1

2

2

5

Humboldt

14

11

12

12

Tuolumne

8

6

4

5

Contra Costa

10

12

11

12

Calaveras

9

11

8

5

Orange

9

11

11

12

Shasta

6

5

5

5

Colusa

12

11

12

12

Nevada

9

6

6

4

Riverside

7

9

8

11

Mono

8

6

8

3

San Joaquin

8

8

9

11

Lassen

2

2

2

2

Santa Cruz

10

11

10

11

Inyo

9

7

3

1

San Luis Obispo

12

13

10

11

Sierra

8

14

17

a

Butte

14

13

11

11

Alpine

El Dorado

10

11

11

11

aData not available for the two largest high schools in the county.

Degree Attainment

Percent of Adults With a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, 2010–2014 Five Year Average

County

Percent

County

Percent

Marin

55%

Mariposa

22%

San Francisco

53

Trinity

22

Santa Clara

47

Inyo

21

San Mateo

45

Calaveras

21

Alameda

42

Riverside

21

Contra Costa

40

Amador

21

Yolo

38

Tuolumne

20

Santa Cruz

38

Fresno

20

Orange

37

Shasta

19

Placer

36

Sierra

19

San Diego

35

San Benito

19

Mono

33

San Bernardino

19

Nevada

33

Modoc

19

Sonoma

33

Sutter

19

El Dorado

32

San Joaquin

18

San Luis Obispo

32

Stanislaus

16

Napa

32

Lake

16

Ventura

32

Del Norte

16

Santa Barbara

31

Glenn

16

Alpine

31

Kern

15

Los Angeles

30

Colusa

14

Statewide Average

30

Yuba

14

Sacramento

28

Tehama

14

Humboldt

28

Madera

14

Butte

25

Imperial

13

Solano

24

Tulare

13

Siskiyou

24

Merced

13

Monterey

23

Lassen

13

Plumas

23

Kings

13

Mendocino

23