LAO Contact
January 28, 2022
In this brief, we provide our initial assessment and recommendations in response to the major wildfire response‑related proposals in the Governor’s budget, based on the information available at the time the brief was prepared. We may provide additional analyses as additional information becomes available from the administration.
Governor’s Budget Includes Several Major Wildfire Response‑Related Proposals.The Governor’s budget provides a total of more than $920 million (mostly from the General Fund) for various wildfire response‑related proposals across multiple departments. We note that, in addition to these proposals, the Governor is proposing a wildfire and forest resilience package, along with several other smaller wildfire‑related proposals.
Overarching Issues for Legislative Consideration. Overall, we find that supporting additional wildfire response capacity is merited given the worsening pattern of large and severe wildfires in recent years. However, we find that the proposals would result in a very large increase in the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection’s base support budget, most of which would be ongoing. Additionally, it is unclear to what extent some of the proposals will enhance response capacity and over what time frame. Finally, we find that the state would continue to benefit from the development of a statewide strategic wildfire plan to guide related funding allocations.
Assessment of Specific Proposals. Despite the absence of a strategic wildfire plan, the Legislature must still make funding decisions. Accordingly, we review the Governor’s major 2022‑23 wildfire response‑related budget proposals. Based on our initial assessment, we classify the budget proposals into four categories. Specifically, we find that (1) some proposals generally appear reasonable; (2) two proposals could potentially have merit, in whole or in part, but lack important details or justification at this time; (3) some proposals assume funding will be provided in another proposal; and (4) some proposals appear not to be the most cost‑effective approach to improving response capacity.
Recommendations. Based on our assessment, we provide recommendations to inform the Legislature’s budget deliberations. As an overarching recommendation, we suggest the Legislature consider the proposals in the context of its overall priorities, keeping in mind the overarching issues for legislative consideration we identified. In terms of the individual wildfire‑response proposals, we recommend the Legislature (1) approve the proposals that appear reasonable, (2) withhold action on proposals that lack important details or justification, (3) withhold action on proposals that assume funding will be provided in another proposal, and (4) require specific information to be reported for proposals that do not appear to be the most cost‑effective approaches to increasing wildfire response capacity.
This Brief Provides Our Initial Comments. This brief is designed to provide the Legislature with our initial assessment and recommendations on the major wildfire response‑related proposals in the Governor’s budget to help guide legislative deliberations. We may provide additional analysis, comments, and recommendations, as relevant, in the coming weeks as additional information becomes available from the administration. We also note that, in addition to these proposals, the Governor is proposing a wildfire and forest resilience package, along with several other smaller wildfire‑related proposals. We summarize the wildfire and forest resilience package in our brief, The 2022‑23 Budget: Wildfire and Forest Resilience Package.
Brief Includes Five Main Sections. This brief consists of five main sections. First, we provide background on wildfires in California, as well as recent state funding for wildfire response. Second, we summarize the Governor’s major wildfire response‑related proposals. Third, we provide some overarching issues for legislative consideration. Fourth, based on the information available at the time this brief was prepared, we provide an initial assessment of the Governor’s major wildfire response‑related proposals. Finally, we provide recommendations for the Legislature as it considers these proposals.
Recent Years Have Seen Some of Largest and Most Destructive Wildfires. In recent years, California has experienced a growing number of destructive wildfires. As Figure 1 shows, most of California’s largest and most destructive wildfires have occurred in recent decades. This trend has been particularly notable in the last few years, which have seen some of the worst wildfires in the state’s recorded history. For example, the 2018 wildfire season included the Camp Fire in Butte County, which became the single most destructive wildfire in state history with nearly 19,000 structures destroyed and 85 fatalities, including the near‑total destruction of the town of Paradise. A few key factors have contributed to the recent increase in destructive wildfires, including climate change, poor forest and land management practices, and increased development in fire‑prone areas.
State Has Historically Focused Mostly on Reducing Wildfire Risks Through Response. The state addresses the risks of destructive wildfires through a combination of (1) prevention—reducing the likelihood that a wildfire will start, (2) mitigation—lessening the damage that wildfires cause when they do occur, and (3) response—suppressing wildfires after they start. Traditionally, the state has focused mostly on response. For example, from 2005‑06 through 2020‑21, we estimate an average of close to 90 percent of the base support budget for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CalFire)—the state’s lead agency for fire protection in the State Responsibility Area (SRA)—has been dedicated to fire response (rather than fire prevention or mitigation). (The SRA makes up roughly one‑third of the state’s land area and consists mostly of privately owned forestlands, watersheds, and rangelands.)
State Uses Mix of Approaches, Across Multiple Agencies, to Respond to Wildfires. The state uses a variety of resources—such as fire crews, hand crews, fire engines, helicopters, and air tankers—to respond to wildfires. Most of these resources are under CalFire. However, other state departments also have resources dedicated to fire response. For example, the Office of Emergency Services (OES) maintains a fleet of fire engines that are used as part of the state’s mutual aid system. Also, in collaboration with CalFire, multiple state departments provide staff for hand crews, including the California Military Department (CMD), California Conservation Corps (CCC), and the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation. (We discuss hand crews in further detail in the nearby box.)
Hand Crews Play Important Role in Wildfire Response. Hand crews support fire response by constructing fire lines, assisting fire engine crews with deployment of fire hoses over long distances, providing logistical and operational support, and extinguishing hotspots to help contain fires. Hand crews also do fire mitigation work, such as hazardous fuels reduction and vegetation management projects, when not responding to wildfires.
Decline in Inmate Population Has Affected Availability of Hand Crews. Historically, the majority of the hand crews utilized by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CalFire) have been operated through agreements with the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation for use of state prison inmates. These inmates are housed at conservation camps located in or near forests throughout the state. In the past decade, the state has enacted various changes to sentencing laws that have significantly reduced the inmate population. This, in turn, has reduced the population housed at conservation camps and available to serve on inmate crews. Specifically, according to the administration, CalFire historically operated 192 inmate crews. However, the number of funded crews declined to 152 as a result of a 2020‑21 budget action to consolidate the state’s conservation camps in response to inmate population declines. Furthermore, the administration reports that, as of August 2021, only 63 out of 152 authorized inmate crews were staffed.
Some Steps Taken to Offset Loss of Hand Crews. To address the decline in inmates available to staff hand crews, CalFire has partnered with other agencies, including the California Conservation Corps and the California Military Department, to provide staff for hand crews. Additionally, CalFire has received funding to hire firefighters to help address this decline. We highlight some of these recent augmentations in Figure 2 of this brief.
Some Response Resources Provide Greater Flexibility Than Others. Some of the resources used by CalFire and other agencies—such as year‑round fire crews and fire engines—provide baseline capacity to fight wildfires. Other resources provide additional capacity during the peak wildfire season or larger wildfire events. (This additional capacity is sometimes referred to as “surge capacity.”) For example, CalFire regularly operates 356 fire engines, which includes 65 engines that operate on a year‑round basis as well as 291 engines that operate on a seasonal basis. In addition to these engines, the department also maintains a fleet of 48 reserve fire engines to provide additional surge capacity. Furthermore, when a fire (or other disaster) is large enough that it overwhelms a community’s capacity to respond, it can request additional resources—such as fire engines or other equipment—from other governmental entities through the state’s mutual aid system. The state supports the mutual aid system in a number of ways, such as by providing state‑funded fire engines to local communities through the OES program mentioned previously. Currently, there are 260 engines operating as part of this program.
Base Wildfire Response Funding Has Increased Substantially in Recent Years. In response to severe wildfire seasons and growing wildfire risks, the state has augmented funding for various wildfire‑related activities in recent years, including those related to wildfire response. As Figure 2 shows, the state has provided augmentations for a variety of response‑related purposes, such as to support additional firefighters, hand crews, support staff, fire engines, air tankers, helicopters, and various types of new technology. Most of these augmentations have been made to CalFire’s budget, but some other agencies have also received additional resources, such as CCC and CMD. As shown in the figure, the state provided some of these funds on an ongoing basis, while it provided others on a limited‑term basis. Driven by augmentations such as these, CalFire’s total base wildfire protection budget has grown by nearly two‑thirds over the past five years alone (from $1.3 billion in 2017‑18 to $2.1 billion in 2021‑22). As shown in Figure 3, CalFire’s overall budget has also increased, with its combined budget for fire protection, emergency fire suppression, and resource management and fire prevention rising by roughly 45 percent over the past five years (from $2.5 billion in 2017‑18 to $3.7 billion in 2021‑22).
Figure 2
Key State Wildfire‑Response Funding Augmentations in the Last Few Years
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CalFire = California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection; CCC = California Conservation Corps; OES = Office of Emergency Services; GGRF = Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund; CMD = California Military Department; CPUC = California Public Utilities Commission; and PUCURA = Public Utilities Commission Utilities Reimbursement Account. |
Extreme Wildfire Events Can Still Strain Response Capacity. Despite recent augmentations, extreme wildfire events can still strain resources. Resource availability can be particularly challenging when multiple large wildfires occur simultaneously, as has happened in recent years. Notably, the state has experienced several severe wildfire seasons in recent years that have challenged the state’s capacity to respond. For example, in 2020, according to data from CalFire, roughly 7,900 requests for fire engines, 900 requests for dozers, and 600 requests for helicopters could not be filled.
Governor’s Budget Includes Several Significant Response‑Related Proposals. The proposed budget provides a total of more than $920 million (mostly from the General Fund) for various wildfire response‑related proposals across a few departments. Major proposals include:
Figure 4
CalFire Capital Outlay Projects Proposed for 2022‑23
(In Thousands)
Project |
2022‑23 |
Total Project |
||
Amount |
Fund |
New or |
||
Statewide: Replace Communications Facilities, Phase V |
$37,266 |
GF |
Continuing |
$41,618 |
Hemet‑Ryan AAB: Replace Facility |
33,661 |
LRB |
Continuing |
37,523 |
Prado HB: Replace Facility |
21,831 |
LRB |
Continuing |
24,600 |
Lake/Napa Unit Autoshop and Warehouse: Replace Facility |
19,713 |
GF |
Continuing |
22,917 |
Potrero Forest FS: Replace Facility |
14,675 |
GF |
Continuing |
17,370 |
Chico AAB: Infrastructure Improvements |
10,605 |
GF |
Continuing |
12,491 |
Shasta Trinity UH/Northern Operations: Relocate Facilities |
6,288 |
GF |
Continuing |
109,759 |
Lake Napa UH and St Helena FS: Relocate Facility |
5,000 |
GF |
New |
42,714 |
Intermountain Conservation Camp: Replace Facility |
3,831 |
GF |
Continuing |
73,895 |
Humboldt‑Del Norte UH: Relocate Facility |
3,558 |
GF |
Continuing |
57,317 |
Paso Robles AAB: Infrastructure Improvements |
3,277 |
GF |
Continuing |
3,859 |
South Tahoe FS: New Facility |
3,000 |
GF |
New |
16,680 |
Hollister AAB/Bear Valley HB: Relocate Facility |
2,131 |
GF |
Continuing |
53,550 |
Minor Projects |
2,068 |
GF |
New |
2,068 |
North Tahoe FS: New Facility |
2,000 |
GF |
New |
15,680 |
Tehama Glenn UH: Relocate Facility |
1,500 |
GF |
New |
63,720 |
Columbia HB: Replace Facility |
1,228 |
GF |
New |
17,435 |
Howard Forest HB: Replace Facility |
1,228 |
GF |
Continuing |
17,885 |
Higgins Corner FS: Replace Facility |
789 |
GF |
Continuing |
12,029 |
Bear Valley FS: Relocate Facility |
750 |
GF |
New |
9,594 |
Macdoel FS: Relocate Facility |
586 |
GF |
Continuing |
11,879 |
Wilbur Springs FS: Relocate Facility |
150 |
GF |
New |
12,214 |
L.A. Moran Reforestation Center Improvements |
50 |
GF |
New |
5,826 |
Self‑Generating Power in Tehama‑Glenn and Fresno‑Kings Units |
50 |
GF |
New |
30,100 |
Totals |
$175,235 |
$712,723 |
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CalFire = California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection; GF = General Fund; AAB = Air Attack Base; LRB = lease‑revenue bonds; HB = Helitack Base; FS = Fire Station; and UH = Unit Headquarters. |
In this section, we identify some overarching issues for the Legislature to consider as it evaluates the Governor’s various wildfire response‑related proposals.
Additional Wildfire Response Capacity, Particularly During Extreme Events, Is Merited. As mentioned previously, there has been a pattern of increasing numbers of severe wildfires in recent years, which have strained the state’s capacity to respond. Moreover, the effects of climate change are likely to lead to growing risks of severe wildfires in the future. Accordingly, it is reasonable to provide additional resources to improve the state’s capacity to respond to future wildfires. In particular, in principle, it makes sense to enhance the availability of flexible resources that can surge when needed to respond to major wildfires.
Proposals Would Result in Very Large Increase in CalFire Base Support Budget, Mostly Ongoing. As shown in Figure 5, if the Legislature adopts all the Governor’s wildfire response‑related proposals, CalFire’s total base support budget for fire protection would increase by 33 percent (from $2.1 billion in 2021‑22 to $2.8 billion in 2022‑23). This represents the largest annual increase since our office started regularly tracking this information in 2005‑06. (For reference, the average annual increase has been 8 percent since 2005‑06.) Also, in contrast to the Governor’s proposed wildfire and forest resilience package, most of the augmentations for wildfire response‑related activities are proposed to be ongoing. (In addition to the proposed augmentations to CalFire’s base support budget, the budget also includes significant new funding for capital outlay projects.)
Figure 5
CalFire Budget Summary
(Dollars in Millions)
2021‑22 |
2022‑23 |
Change |
||
Amount |
Percent |
|||
By Program |
||||
Base Fire Protection |
$2,113 |
$2,809 |
$695.0 |
33% |
Emergency Fire Suppression |
838 |
413 |
‑424.4 |
‑51 |
Resource Management |
745 |
414 |
‑330.1 |
‑44 |
Othera |
68 |
72 |
4.0 |
6 |
Totals |
$3,763 |
$3,708 |
‑$55.0 |
‑1% |
aOther includes the Office of the State Fire Marshal, Board of Forestry and Fire Protection, and Department of Justice Legal Services. |
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CalFire = California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. |
Unclear to What Extent Some Proposals Would Enhance Capacity and Over What Time Frame. As noted above, the concept of improving wildfire response capacity has merit. However, the extent to which some of the Governor’s proposals would expand this capacity and over what time period is unclear. For example, the largest proposal included in the Governor’s budget is $400 million in ongoing General Fund to support the health and wellness of CalFire firefighters. As we discuss further later in this brief, while supporting firefighters is a worthy endeavor, it is unclear how this funding would be allocated, including how much would be provided to increase staffing versus increasing pay and/or benefits. If the proposed funding is used to increase compensation, it is unclear to what extent (if at all) it will result in greater response capacity. Similarly, the Governor’s budget includes a proposal to acquire new fire engines for training centers, some of which would replace older engines and some of which would increase the number of training engines available. While trainees may appreciate these new engines, it is unclear how the proposed engines would improve response capacity or provide other measurable benefits to the state.
We also note that the Governor proposes to fund some activities for which it may take a few years to see benefits. Notably, the Governor proposes to acquire helicopters and other equipment, which can take substantial time to procure. For example, CalFire estimates it will take roughly one additional year to receive each additional helicopter ordered. As such, it would take roughly four years for the department to receive all four of the proposed helicopters. The department also estimates it would take up to three years to receive the additional proposed fire engines and dozers. Additionally, the various types of capital outlay projects proposed by the Governor often take at least a few years to complete and be available for use.
Some Proposed Spending Is Excluded Under State Appropriations Limit (SAL). The California Constitution imposes a limit on the amount of revenue the state can appropriate each year. The state can exclude certain capital outlay appropriations from the SAL calculation. Of the roughly $855 million proposed from the General Fund for major wildfire response‑related proposals in 2022‑23, the Governor excludes roughly 30 percent ($252 million) from the SAL. This includes $132 million for equipment and $120 million for capital outlay projects. The remaining roughly $603 million of General Fund—almost all of which is proposed on an ongoing basis—would likely count towards the limit. If the Legislature were to reject any of the wildfire response proposals excluded from the SAL calculation, it would generally need to repurpose the associated funding for other SAL‑related purposes, such as tax reductions or an alternative excluded expenditure. (In our report, The State Appropriations Limit, we cover SAL issues in more detail.)
Absence of a Strategic Wildfire Plan Makes It Difficult to Assess if Proposals Are Optimal Approach. We continue to believe that the state would benefit from the development of a statewide strategic wildfire plan, as we discussed in our February 2020 report, The 2020‑21 Budget: Governor’s Wildfire‑Related Proposals. The purpose of the plan would be to inform and guide state policymakers regarding the most effective strategies for responding to wildfires and mitigating wildfire risks. In particular, the plan should include guidance on future funding allocations to ensure the highest‑priority and most cost‑effective programs and activities receive funding and that the state supports an optimal balance of funding for resilience and response.
The Legislature has taken steps to attempt to secure information that would facilitate a more strategic approach to addressing wildfire risks. Specifically, as part of the 2019‑20 budget package, the Legislature required CalFire and OES to conduct an assessment of the existing wildfire response capacity through state and mutual aid resources to identify gaps in capacity, cost‑effective approaches, and fire response goals. (We refer to this as the “required assessment” in this brief.) The required assessment was due on April 1, 2020, but has not been provided to date due to competing workload demands. According to CalFire, the administration has no estimated time frame for completing this report. Absent the types of information that would be in a strategic wildfire plan and the required assessment, it is difficult for the Legislature to determine whether the proposals put forward by the administration represent the most appropriate and cost‑effective mix of approaches to meet the state’s needs for fire response.
Despite the absence of a strategic wildfire plan, the Legislature must still make funding decisions and respond to the budget proposals put forward by the Governor. In order to assist the Legislature in this process, we assess the Governor’s specific 2022‑23 wildfire response‑related budget proposals, based on the information available to us at the time of the preparation of this brief. As we discuss further below, we find that (1) some proposals generally appear reasonable; (2) two proposals could potentially have merit, in whole or in part, but lack important details or justification at this time; (3) some proposals assume funding will be provided in another proposal and thus the proposals should be considered together; and (4) some proposals appear not to be the most cost‑effective approach to improving response capacity.
We find that some of the Governor’s proposals appear reasonable based on the information provided by the administration at the time this brief was prepared. These proposals include the following:
We find that two proposals could potentially have merit in whole or in part, but lack some key information or justification at this time. These proposals are:
We find that the some of the Governor’s proposals assume funding will be provided in the staffing and operational enhancements proposal. As such, it will be important for the Legislature to consider these proposals together as we discuss below.
We have some initial concerns with the remaining proposals because they may not represent the most cost‑effective approaches to improving response capacity based on the information available at the time this brief was prepared. Specifically, we have such concerns with the following proposals:
In this section of the brief, we provide our initial recommendations on the Governor’s major wildfire response‑related proposals to inform the Legislature’s budget deliberations based on the information we had received at the time this brief was prepared. First, we provide an overarching recommendation that the Legislature consider proposals in the context of its overall priorities. Next, we provide a series of recommendations on the individual wildfire‑response proposals we assessed. Specifically, we recommend that the Legislature (1) approve those proposals that appear reasonable, (2) withhold action on two proposals pending the receipt of certain information from the administration, (3) withhold action on proposals that rely on funding provided through another proposal, and (4) require relevant departments to report on certain information for proposals that do not appear to be the most cost‑effective approaches to increasing wildfire response capacity.
Given the size of the proposed wildfire response‑related augmentations, we recommend that the Legislature weigh all the proposals in the context of its priorities and other budget decisions, keeping in mind the following considerations:
Some proposals meet clearly identified needs, include sufficient details to enable us to adequately assess them, and are likely to be reasonable even in the absence of a strategic wildfire plan. Accordingly, we think it makes sense for the Legislature to approve them. These proposals include (1) CalFire’s contract county crews proposal and (2) CalFire’s various capital outlay proposals.
As we discuss previously, there are a couple proposals that may have merit in concept, but are lacking adequate details and/or justification at this time. For these proposals, we recommend that the Legislature withhold action pending receipt of additional information from the administration. If the administration does not provide sufficient information to justify their approval, we recommend that the Legislature reject the proposals in whole or in part. These proposals are:
We recommend that the Legislature withhold action on the proposals that are proposed to be staffed in part with resources included in the staffing and operational enhancements proposal.
As discussed previously, there are a few proposals that do not appear to be the most cost‑effective approach to improving response capacity based on the information available at the time of the preparation of this brief. Accordingly, we recommend that the Legislature require the administering departments to report specific information to address these concerns. To the extent that the responses are not compelling, we would recommend the Legislature modify or reject these proposals. These proposals are: