May 24, 2025
Appendix Figure 1
LAO General Fund Multiyear Forecast, 2025‑26 May Revision
May 2025 LAO Outlook (In Millions)
2024‑25 |
2025‑26 |
2026‑27 |
2027‑28 |
2028‑29 |
|
Resources |
|||||
Prior‑year balance |
$41,966 |
$34,226 |
$24,335 |
$10,390 |
‑$7,249 |
Revenues/transfers |
220,641 |
209,933 |
217,958 |
229,449 |
241,634 |
Transfer to Budget Stabilization Account |
71 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Withdrawal from the Budget Stabilization Account |
4,926 |
7,100 |
— |
— |
— |
Total Resources |
$267,462 |
$251,258 |
$242,294 |
$239,838 |
$234,385 |
Expenditures |
|||||
Proposition 98 |
$85,209 |
$81,634 |
$85,179 |
$91,466 |
$96,131 |
Non‑Proposition 98 |
148,028 |
145,289 |
146,725 |
155,621 |
156,888 |
Total Expenditures |
$233,237 |
$226,923 |
$231,904 |
$247,088 |
$253,019 |
Fund Balances |
|||||
Reserve for Encumbrances |
$18,001 |
$18,001 |
$18,001 |
$18,001 |
$18,001 |
Special Fund for Economic Uncertainties |
16,225 |
6,335 |
‑7,611 |
‑25,250 |
‑36,635 |
Safety Net Reserve |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Budget Stabilization Account (Mandatory Deposits) |
16,529 |
9,440 |
9,440 |
9,440 |
9,440 |
Budget Stabilization Account (Total Deposits) |
18,292 |
11,192 |
11,192 |
11,192 |
11,192 |
Public School System Stabilization Account |
1,266 |
854 |
— |
133 |
1,097 |
Operating surplus/deficit |
— |
‑9,890 |
‑13,946 |
‑17,639 |
‑11,385 |
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. |
Appendix Figure 2
Proposition 98 Multiyear
May 2025 LAO Outlook (Dollars in Millions)
2023‑24 |
2024‑25 |
2025‑26 |
2026‑27 |
2027‑28 |
2028‑29 |
|
General Fund |
67,952a |
86,524 |
81,634 |
85,179 |
91,466 |
96,131 |
Local Property Tax |
31,470 |
32,699 |
34,243 |
35,309 |
36,586 |
38,464 |
Total Proposition 98 |
$99,422 |
$119,223 |
$115,876 |
$120,488 |
$128,052 |
$134,595 |
Settle‑Up |
— |
‑1,315 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Total Proposition 98 General Fund Appropriation |
$67,952a |
$85,209 |
$81,634 |
$85,179 |
$91,466 |
$96,131 |
Proposition 98 Change to Prior‑year |
‑$5,235 |
$20,738 |
‑$3,346 |
$4,612 |
$7,564 |
$6,543 |
Percent Change to Prior‑year |
‑5.05% |
21.06% |
‑2.81% |
3.98% |
6.28% |
5.11% |
Proposition 98 Operative Test |
2 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
Maintenance Factor Balance |
$8,002 |
$3,507 |
$3,751 |
$4,702 |
$3,417 |
$2,539 |
Settle‑Up Balance |
— |
1,315 |
1,315 |
1,315 |
1,315 |
1,315 |
Mandate Balance |
785 |
785 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
Public School Stabilization Account Transfer |
— |
$,266 |
— |
— |
133 |
964 |
Public School Stabilization Account Withdrawal |
‑8,413 |
— |
‑412 |
‑854 |
— |
— |
Public School Stabilization Account Balance |
— |
1,266 |
854 |
— |
133 |
1,097 |
aIncludes $938 million in Proposition 28 arts and music education funding. |
||||||
PY = prior year; CY = current year; BY = budget year; and n/a = not applicable. |
Appendix Figure 3
General Fund Multiyear Non‑Proposition 98 Expenditures by Agency,
2025‑26 May Revision
May 2025 LAO Outlook (In Millions)
2024‑25 |
2025‑26 |
2026‑27 |
2027‑28 |
2028‑29 |
|
Legislative, Executive |
$7,600 |
$4,465 |
$3,377 |
$3,441 |
$2,822 |
Courts |
3,248 |
3,340 |
3,547 |
3,682 |
3,844 |
Business, Consumer Services, and Housing |
3,726 |
287 |
222 |
221 |
221 |
Transportation |
248 |
162 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
Natural Resources |
7,532 |
2,090 |
2,024 |
2,057 |
2,093 |
Environmental Protection |
623 |
117 |
117 |
117 |
117 |
Health and Human Services |
76,022 |
83,713 |
86,270 |
91,437 |
95,106 |
Corrections and Rehabilitation |
13,945 |
12,969 |
12,890 |
12,790 |
12,720 |
Education |
19,981 |
19,591 |
21,223 |
22,644 |
20,183 |
Labor and Workforce Development |
1,108 |
946 |
1,028 |
1,081 |
1,137 |
Government Operations |
3,464 |
3,547 |
3,220 |
3,213 |
2,932 |
General Government |
4,231 |
7,481 |
6,478 |
8,346 |
8,894 |
Non‑Agency Departments |
‑2,367 |
‑1,209 |
‑1,114 |
‑1,640 |
‑1,090 |
Tax Relief/Local Government |
‑653 |
‑556 |
‑491 |
‑491 |
‑491 |
Statewide Expenditures |
‑1,211 |
‑5,715 |
‑4,873 |
‑6,214 |
‑7,313 |
Capital Outlay |
773 |
681 |
217 |
277 |
230 |
Debt Service |
5,525 |
5,900 |
6,080 |
6,284 |
6,556 |
Total Non‑Proposition 98 Expenditures |
$148,028 |
$145,289 |
$146,725 |
$155,621 |
$156,888 |
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. |