May 12, 2018 - In this report, we discuss our new revenue outlook for the state, released as part of our response to the Governor's 2018-19 May Revision.
February 22, 2006 - The state budget continues to benefit from healthy revenue growth. After climbing by over 8 percent in 2004‑05, the 2006‑07 Governor’s Budget assumes that revenues from the state’s major taxes will increase further by 6.2 percent in 2005‑06 and 5.7 percent in 2006‑07. The administration’s current forecast is up substantially from the estimates included in the 2005‑06 Budget Act. It is also up significantly from our office’s prior forecast presented in November 2005. In addition, for the current year and budget year combined, our revised General Fund estimates are higher than the administration’s by roughly $2.3 billion.
February 22, 2005 - The current strength in the economy is translating into solid growth in receipts from the state's taxes—particularly the corporate tax and personal income tax. Recent cash receipts trends have been even stronger than anticipated in the Governor's budget, mainly because of strong 2004 year-end collections from the personal income tax and corporation tax. Based largely on these positive trends, we project that General Fund revenues will exceed the budget forecast by $1.4 billion in the current year and $765 million in the budget year.
February 19, 2003 - We estimate that revenues will exceed the budget forecast by a net of $1.3 billion in 2002-03 and 2003-04 combined. Our higher estimate assumes a somewhat earlier and stronger economic recovery than does the administration.
February 18, 2004 - 2003-04 Forecast: We forecast that General Fund revenues and transfers will total $74.1 billion in the current year, a $2.8 billion (3.9 percent) increase from 2002-03. This is down $491 million from the budget forecast, of which $477 million is related to our lower estimate of personal income tax (PIT) revenues. 2004-05 Forecast: We forecast that revenues and transfers will total $75.9 billion in 2004-05, a $1.7 billion (2.4 percent) increase from the current year. This is down about $525 million from the new budget's projection, primarily reflecting the ongoing effects of the current-year reduction in PIT receipts.
February 21, 2007 - Following two years of major increases, it appears that revenue growth is slowing sharply in 2006-07, reflecting the impacts of a more moderate economic expansion and a dip in income from capital gains. The budget assumes that revenue growth will revive somewhat in 2007-08, led by an improving economy beginning later this year. For the current and budget years combined, we are estimating that General Fund revenues will fall below the budget forecast by $2 billion.
February 21, 2001 - Strong economic growth through the end of 2000 is significantly boosting revenues in the current year. However, an economic slowdown in 2001 will depress revenues in the budget year.
November 14, 2012 - The 18th annual edition of the LAO's Fiscal Outlook--a forecast of the state's budget condition over the next five years--shows that California's budget situation has improved sharply. The state's economic recovery, prior budget cuts, and the additional, temporary taxes provided by Proposition 30 have combined to bring California to a promising moment: the possible end of a decade of acute state budget challenges. Our economic and budgetary forecast indicates that California's leaders face a dramatically smaller budget problem in 2013-14 compared to recent years. Furthermore, assuming steady economic growth and restraint in augmenting current program funding levels, there is a strong possibility of multibillion-dollar operating surpluses within a few years.
February 20, 2002 - The state is facing a major budget shortfall caused largely by an unprecedented decline in tax receipts. Specifically, General Fund revenues are projected to fall by over 14 percent in 2001-02, just two years after the state experienced a more than 23 percent increase. In addition, basic revenue volatility has increased in recent years, giving the revenue forecast greater uncertainty.