Frequently asked questions concerning Facebook and California's General Fund

Aug 1, 2012 - (The budget plan also includes "trigger cuts" affecting education and other public services in the event that Proposition 30 does not go into effect.) We discussed the administration 's Facebook forecast--as well as our office 's independent  Facebook revenue  forecast--in more detail  in   an online note  just before the IPO in May, which noted the "large margin of error" surrounding both forecasts.
https://lao.ca.gov/Recommendations/Details/618

LAO commentary on Facebook IPO and state revenue forecasts

May 15, 2012 - An extraordinary economic event like Facebook ’s IPO has the potential to skew economic data in ways that hinder current and future revenue forecasting. Like our office, the administration ran its revenue forecasting models ba sed on an economic forecast that excluded Facebook IPO income in order to address this problem.
https://lao.ca.gov/Recommendations/Details/596

Summary of LAO Findings and Recommendations on the 2012-13 Budget

An extraordinary economic event like Facebook ’s IPO has the potential to skew economic data in ways that hinder current and future revenue forecasting. Like our office, the administration ran its revenue forecasting models based on an economic forecast that excluded Facebook IPO income in order to address this problem.
https://lao.ca.gov/laoapp/budgetlist/PublicSearch.aspx?PolicyAreaNum=70&KeyCol=596&Yr=2012

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - With the concentration of stock market gains in technology companies, any event that shakes mar ket confidence, including things beyond waning enthusiasm about AI, could be detrimental to state revenues.    
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - With the concentration of stock market gains in technology companies, any event that shakes mar ket confidence, including things beyond waning enthusiasm about AI, could be detrimental to state revenues.    
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

Background information on LAO's May 2012 economic and revenue forecasts

May 18, 2012 - Figure 6 compares the LAO May 2012 revenue estimate related to the Facebook IPO with those in other recent forecasts. The IPO was announced in February and thus was not included in the Governor ’s January 2012 forecast. ( Additional information on our May 2012 Facebook IPO revenue forecast was published on this website on May 15.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Recommendations/Details/599

The 2012-13 Budget: Economic and Revenue Update [Publication Details]

Feb 27, 2012 - Like the economic data, reports concerning state revenues have been mixed recently too, with weakness in income tax payments accompanied by speculation concerning a future bonanza of tax revenues due to the possible offering of stock by Facebook, Inc.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/2578

Fiscal Outlook: Estimating Wages and Salaries [EconTax Blog]

Nov 14, 2018 - We expect workers in technology sector jobs —which includes firms conducting data processing, software development, and web search, like Google and Facebook —to see strong growth in both average wages and jobs.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/321

May income tax collections, to date, are above Governor's projections

May 30, 2013 - Withholding for May 2013  has totaled  about $3.48 billion, which is  $67 million (2 percent) above May 2012 levels, despite the fact that May 2012 is believed to have included a few hundred million dollars of nonrecurring PIT withholding resulting from Facebook, Inc. ’s initial public offering.
https://lao.ca.gov/Recommendations/Details/771

^[PDF] The 2012-13 Budget: Overview of the May Revision

What Will Happen With Facebook and Capital Gains? Both our forecast and the administration’s assume that California will experience a revenue boost due to the Facebook IPO of about $2 billion spread across 2011-12 and 2012-13, assuming passage of the Governor’s tax measure.
https://lao.ca.gov/reports/2012/bud/may_revise/overview-may-revise-051812.pdf