The 2012-13 Budget: Economic and Revenue Update [Publication Details]

Feb 27, 2012 - Like the economic data, reports concerning state revenues have been mixed recently too, with weakness in income tax payments accompanied by speculation concerning a future bonanza of tax revenues due to the possible offering of stock by Facebook, Inc.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/2578

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - During the special session, the Legislature added Control Sections 90.00 and 90.01 to the 2024 ‑25 Budget Act providing up to $2.5  billion one ‑time for response and recovery costs related to the January 2025 Southern California wildfires.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

COVID-19 and California’s Evolving Fiscal Outlook

Mar 18, 2020 - Beyond the consensus view —that the pandemic introduces a negative economic shock —the various forecasts exhibit a wide range of potential outcomes, reflecting the unprecedented nature of recent events.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4203

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - As such, our independent fiscal assessment underlies the Legislature ’s ability to assert an informed check on the executive branch, making any added complexity from diverging estimates a worthwhile trade-off.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

An Extraordinary Moment in California's Fiscal History

Apr 11, 2019 - One reason to consider staying the course on adding to reserves is the degree to which the federal government ’s fiscal position has deteriorated over the past one-to-two years (see Figure  2). Measured against U.S.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4003

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Recent stress in the banking sector illustrates the point and even if the turmoil largely has subsided, these events could potentially contribute to more constrained credit conditions. In addition to gauging the risk of recession, the type of recession that could unfold, if there is one, will matter.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2019-20 May Revision: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 12, 2019 - We believe this increase in revenues likely is a one-time event in response to federal tax changes in 2017. Some Tax Policy Changes. The increase in revenues, including in PT and CT, also reflects some changes to tax policy and assumptions about the effects of those changes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4039

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - Finally, although we have not previously recommended the Leg islature take decisive action to address the structural deficits, the state ’s persistent fiscal imbalance and the added downside risks —particularly from potential federal actions —suggest a need for a more proactive approach.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2021-22 Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Sep 23, 2021 - In September 2020, the Legislature instituted the Main Street Small Business Tax Credit, which provides income or sales tax credits to firms with 100 or fewer employees that added jobs in the second half of 2020.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4452