Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - We have attributed some of the weaker-than-expected personal income withholding tax collections so far to a steep 84  percent decline in initial public offering (IPO) activity in 2022. Given that many IPOs in recent years have been among technology-related firms, the ongoing slowdown in that sector combined with more restrictive access to credit going forward is cautionary.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

Why Has Income Tax Withholding Lagged, Despite Job Growth? [EconTax Blog]

Nov 16, 2022 - The drop-off in IPO activity likely has also contributed to the relatively weak withholding figures seen to-date. While the typical share of withholding collections on bonuses and stock options is unknown, these types of incomes likely contributed to strong  tax withholding growth in 2021.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/759

How High? Adjusting California’s Cannabis Taxes

Dec 17, 2019 - Miller, Keaton and Boyoung Seo (2019). “Tax Revenues When Substances Substitute: Marijuana, Alcohol, and Tobacco. ” Mimeo, University of Oregon. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2017).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4125

Amid Good Fiscal Times, Planning for the Future Is Crucial

May 21, 2019 - Whereas in a typical year, California-based companies make initial public offerings (IPOs) worth about $30  billion of market capitalization, 2019 has already seen IPOs with $150  billion in market capitalization.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4051

The 2019-20 May Revision: LAO Revenue Outlook

May 12, 2019 - So far this year, California-based company IPOs have had almost $150  billion of market capitalization ($82  billion of which was from the recent Uber IPO). While IPOs can ultimately increase capital gains, the primary observable effect of IPOs is in withholding.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4037

Frequently asked questions concerning Facebook and California's General Fund

Aug 1, 2012 - All of the state 's Facebook revenue projections were developed prior to the IPO in May  in line with California 's standard budget calendar. As such, both  the administration and our office had to make assumptions about what would happen to Facebook 's stock price in the months following the IPO.
https://lao.ca.gov/Recommendations/Details/618

Background information on LAO's May 2012 economic and revenue forecasts

May 18, 2012 - Figure 6 compares the LAO May 2012 revenue estimate related to the Facebook IPO with those in other recent forecasts. The IPO was announced in February and thus was not included in the Governor ’s January 2012 forecast. ( Additional information on our May 2012 Facebook IPO revenue forecast was published on this website on May 15.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Recommendations/Details/599

LAO commentary on Facebook IPO and state revenue forecasts

May 15, 2012 - The Facebook IPO ’s Effect on the Economy About One-Fifth of 2012 Personal Income Growth Will Relate to the IPO. It appears that the bulk of income that will be attributable to Californians due to the IPO will be classified as a type of wage income, although there likely will be substantial c apital gains activity as well.
https://lao.ca.gov/Recommendations/Details/596

LAO Publications

View on YouTube . Format: July 1, 2011 - Summary Tables 2011-12 Budget Package Format: 2009 List of State Boards and Commissions (Partially Updated) June 7, 2011 - This document is a partially updated list of nearly 300 state boards and commissions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications?page=4&year=0&publicationType=0&type=Other

^[PDF] The 2012-13 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

We caution that it will be impossible to forecast IPO-related state revenues with any precision, and it is likely that little information about the state revenue gain from the Facebook IPO will be available before investors file tax returns in April 2013.
https://lao.ca.gov/reports/2012/bud/budget_overview/budget-overview-011112.pdf