Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - The Fed ’s continued efforts to lower inflation by raising the Fed funds rate has the effect of cooling the economy, which inherently raises the odds of a recession. As a potential precipitating factor to recession, tighter monetary policy can also reveal financial system vulnerabilities.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

COVID-19 and California’s Evolving Fiscal Outlook

Mar 18, 2020 - COVID-19 Response Abruptly Brings Economic Activity to a Halt … With regard to the broader economy, the odds of a recession have increased substantially within a short period of time. The suddenness of the pullback in activity across wide swaths of the economy —and especially the various service sectors —is particularly problematic.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4203

Strong Tax Collections Belie California's Challenging Fiscal Outlook

Apr 26, 2022 - History suggests that this is a daunting task, however, and at least raises the odds of a recession. Financial markets, and the yield curve for U.S. Treasury notes in particular, recently have signaled as much.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4590

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - (Our Fiscal Outlook revenues are our best estimate of the revenue assumption that has even odds of being too high or too low.) We then look at where in this range of potential revenue outcomes the Governor ’s proposed level of spending falls.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687