California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The current discrepancy over the size of the state ’s budget deficit —$18  billion under the Legislative Analyst ’s Office estimate versus $3  billion in the Governor ’s budget —fits squarely within that pattern.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

October Tax Collections [EconTax Blog]

Nov 17, 2022 - The October variance instead arises from a timing issue related to the newly created   elective pass-through entity (PTE) tax . The administration anticipated a large amount of income tax refunds ($9.7 billion) would be paid in October, related to delayed claiming of credits for elective PTE payments for tax year 2021.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/761

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - However, our Fiscal Outlook revenue forecast, shown in Figure  2 , reflects a smaller, temporary upgrade which reverses beginning in 2026 ‑ 27 —resulting in 2026 ‑27 revenues being in line with budget act estimates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - This would consist of two amounts: $13. 5  b illion in the BSA and $2. 3  b illion in the SFEU. The administration currently estimates a very small “true down ” to the BSA in 2017 ‑18, although that may change at the time of the May Revision.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

^[PDF] HMOs and Rural California

In those rural areas where these steps are not enough to attract HMOs, we identify ways com- munities can develop their own health care sys- tems based on the experience of one rural California county. ■ August 8, 2002 2 L E G I S L A T I V E A N A L Y S T ’ S O F F I C E A N L A O R E P O R T INTRODUCTION How and Why the LAO Conducted This Study Chapter 208,
https://lao.ca.gov/2002/hmos_rural_ca/8-02_hmos_rural_ca.pdf

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - To fund its operations, the measure authorizes the commission to levy annual assessments on public benefit AI companies equal to 1 to 2 percent of their California gross revenue. Allows New Civil and Criminal Penalties and Private Enforcement.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

^[PDF] Fiscal Implications for the 1115 Waiver Renewal

We also project that the overall Medi-Cal caseload will grow nearly 2 percent annually commensurate with increases in state popu- lation and other underlying trends. State’s Fiscal Outlook and Medi-Cal Growth Projections 2L E G I S L A T I V E A N A L Y S T ’ S O F F I C E November 18, 2009  Overall state and federal Medi-Cal spending in 2008-09 is estimated at
https://lao.ca.gov/handouts/Health/2009/Fiscal_Implications_11_18_09.pdf

^[PDF] California Redistricting Commission Amendment, Amendment No. 2-S

The measure requires the Legislature to appropriate funds necessary for the com- mission to carry out its responsibilities, as well as compensation and expense reim- bursement for members of the commission.
https://lao.ca.gov/ballot/1999/991002_INT.pdf