The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook Executive Summary Not Safe to Bet Artificial Intelligence ( AI) Fueled Exuberance Is Sustainable. Both the California and U.S. economies currently face significant headwinds.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

A Framework for Allocating Federal Recovery Funds [Publication Details]

May 4, 2021 - In this post, we lay out some guiding principles for the Legislature to consider as it formulates a plan for using the fiscal recovery funds. Reports by Policy Area
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/4422

A Framework for Allocating Federal Recovery Funds

May 4, 2021 - A strategic approach similarly applies to our other guiding principles —identify gaps and maximize longer-term benefits —which are less process-oriented and more substantive policy-related suggestions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4422

Cap-and-Trade Extension: Issues for Legislative Oversight

Dec 12, 2017 - It could also provide greater long ‑term certainty to the market, which helps ensure allowance prices provide the incentives for GHG reduction strategies that are needed to meet the state ’s goals. Options to Address Potential Overallocation Concern Exist.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3719

Flexible Funding to California in the American Rescue Plan

Mar 23, 2021 - We will know more once the guid ance is released. When Will We Know More? The ARP sets a statutory deadline of 60 days for the funds to be distributed to state and local governments. As such, we expect Treasury to release guidance in the coming weeks.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4407

The 2016-17 Budget: California Spending Plan

Oct 5, 2016 - These funds are only available after ARB approves the SLCP strategy required by Chapter  523 of 2014 (SB  605, Lara). ARB staff is expected to present a final SLCP strategy to the board in fall 2016.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3487/8

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Revenue Outlook

May 12, 2018 - As wages and salaries make up about two-thirds of income (as seen in the tax guide on page 6 ), this growth is a key driver of our outlook for the PIT. Capital Gains Spike in 2017-18 and 2018-19. Preliminary Franchise Tax Board data show that net capital gains in 2016 totaled $110 billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3830

Tempered Expectations

Dec 9, 2019 - If history is a guide, however, California could again suffer a proportionately sharper downturn when the national economy next goes into a recession. Moreover, certain policy changes in recent years likely exacerbate the state ’s propensity for fiscal volatility.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4122

With New Deficits Looming, California Will Weigh its Options for Allocating a Large Revenue Windfall

Dec 1, 2020 - Three observations in particular guided development of our recommendations. First, the revenue windfall is a one-time occurrence. Whereas the 2020 ‑21 budget was built on the assumption of a widely anticipated plunge in revenues, actual tax collections largely have continued apace.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4305