How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - Income Taxes Tend to Lag Major Market Turns by Up to a Year. State income tax growth typically lags stock market turning points by six to twelve months. Before past downturns, taxes have generally grown briskly, often due to the same stock market run-ups that preeceded the downturn.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - Income Taxes Tend to Lag Major Market Turns by Up to a Year. State income tax growth typically lags stock market turning points by six to twelve months. Before past downturns, taxes have generally grown briskly, often due to the same stock market run-ups that preeceded the downturn.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

^[PDF] The 1989-90 Budget: Perspectives and Issues

glitrlXg£ii~· The adoption of Proposition 98 by the voters in November places another 40 percent of the budget "off-limits" to legislative control of its funding level. By our estimates, almost 70 percent of the state's General Fund budget iscoIltr()lleci Qy.
https://lao.ca.gov/analysis/1989/pandi_89_part1.pdf

The 2026-27 Budget: California Competes Extension

Mar 18, 2026 - …But Also Indicates a Possible Trade-Off. However, there is a potential trade-off when considering awarding a credit to an applicant with a higher potential benefit to the state but a lower probability of achieving their milestones, compared to an applicant with a lower benefit but who is more likely to achieve their milestones.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5162

Frequently asked questions concerning Facebook and California's General Fund

Aug 1, 2012 - Frequently asked questions concerning Facebook and California's General Fund Frequently asked questions concerning Facebook and California's General Fund Program: Revenues Finding or Recommendation: This item lists answers to frequently asked questions concerning Facebook's stock and California's General Fund budget for 2012-13.
https://lao.ca.gov/Recommendations/Details/618

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - This, in turn, could prevent the Legislature from grappling with the important risks and trade-offs inherent in their budgeting decisions. Our independent revenue estimates facilitate consideration of these trade-offs in several ways.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

LAO commentary on Facebook IPO and state revenue forecasts

May 15, 2012 - State tax revenue estimates regarding Facebook, therefore, require numerous assumptions. Because of these factors, there is a large margin of error surrounding both our Facebook revenue estimates and those of the administration.
https://lao.ca.gov/Recommendations/Details/596

Overview of New Updates to the Cap-and-Invest Program

Dec 9, 2025 - Continued and robust legislative oversight will be key to helping ensure that the cap ‑and ‑invest program operates effectively and balances competing policy trade ‑offs in a way that is consistent with legislative  priorities.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5097

Summary of LAO Findings and Recommendations on the 2012-13 Budget

Essentially, to avoid “double counting ” the Facebook income, this means that both of our revenue estimates consider the economy without Facebook and then add PIT revenues on top of those estimates to account for the IPO.
https://lao.ca.gov/laoapp/budgetlist/PublicSearch.aspx?PolicyAreaNum=70&KeyCol=596&Yr=2012

The 2026-27 Budget: Community College Facilities

Mar 17, 2026 - In deciding how much funding to allocate, the Legislature faces a basic trade-off. On the one hand, allocating more funding now would allow more projects to begin in 2026-27, avoiding the construction cost escalation associated with waiting until a future year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5159